Is Utah's growth stabilizing? Not in some counties

Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Utah's population grew by over 50,000 residents from July 2023 to July 2024.
Utah and Salt Lake counties accounted for two-thirds of the state's growth.
Net migration decreased, contributing to slightly slower growth.

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's overall growth slowed some in 2024, which might have something to do with a few economic factors, according to a new state population report.

Utah and Salt Lake counties accounted for about two-thirds of the population gains during that time, as the Wasatch Front and southwest Utah continued to spur growth. Twenty-one of the state's 29 counties also grew over the past year.

In all, the state's estimated population grew by a little over 50,000 between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, the Utah Population Committee at the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute reported on Thursday. It represents a 1.5% increase in population, down from 1.6% the year before.

The estimates are based on state health, school enrollment and tax data, as well as building permits and other sources that help pinpoint population between decennial censuses.

"We're starting to see some slowing population growth," said Emily Harris, a senior demographer for the institute. "We're also seeing a lot of our indicator data starting to stabilize."

The institute calculated 10,000 fewer people than the Census Bureau estimated in December, after years where the two sides — using different datasets — have disagreed on growth numbers. Nevertheless, both say the Beehive State surpassed 3.5 million residents last year as the two sides' numbers inch closer together.

What's driving growth?

Utah had been known — from about 1990 through 2009 — as a national leader in natural growth, where the number of babies born outpaced the number of deaths. However, it's been on the decline since about 2009.

Its growth has shifted toward net migration, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, as people began moving into the state than out. The growth here reflects Utah's "favorable economic conditions," researchers note in the report.

The trend slowed a bit in 2024, though. Net migration accounted for about 52% of the state's growth last year, down from 57% in 2023 and an all-time high of 60% in 2022, the committee estimates. That's despite natural increases, which remained about the same from 2023 to 2024 — the first time in a decade the figure didn't change.

It's unclear why this slowed, but Harris said it could be the result of post-pandemic stabilization.

Researchers point out it is "more volatile" than natural increase because it is "sensitive to societal and economic situations." Thus, the percentage decrease could reflect slowly increasing unemployment rates and slower employment growth over the past year.

The state's unemployment rose from 2.7% in July 2023 to 3.2% in July 2024 and ended the year at 3.5% — still below the national average, per the Utah Department of Workforce Services. Natalie Gochnour, director of the Gardner Policy Institute, points out that job growth slipped from 4.2% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2024.

Building permits also slowed some because of high interest rates, which added to the rising cost of housing as well. All of these trends — not unique to the state — may have trickled down into population growth slowdowns.

"We absolutely believe housing affordability is moderating our growth," she said. "That's just one of a few (factors), but that's certainly a significant one. I'll also add there's incredible uncertainty in the economy right now, and when you're uncertain you don't invest or you don't hire."

There is one other possible factor in growth. Census Bureau officials reported in December that international migration, fueled by a spike in humanitarian migrants, led to a spike in national population growth. Utah tied Texas for the third-highest population percentage increase from 2023 to 2024 among all states, districts and territories, partially because of this.

Harris said this type of data is not collected in the state's methods. However, after years where the two sides posted vastly different numbers, the state believes the federal methodology change may finally close a gap in population estimates moving forward. The different between the two estimates is now a little more than 3,000 people, as of July 2024.

Population patterns by counties

Federal experts have yet to release county and citywide estimates from 2024, but countywide information was included in Thursday's state report.

Unsurprisingly, Utah County led the state in numeric growth, adding close to 22,000 people from 2023 to 2024, or 43% of the statewide total. Harris said it led all counties in both natural increase and net migration, repeating past trends.

Salt Lake County — still the state's most populated county — tacked on another 12,000 to account for almost a quarter of the state's growth. Washington, Tooele and Iron counties rounded out the top five, showcasing how the Greater Salt Lake and southwest Utah regions are the biggest population gainers.

These maps show absolute population and percent changes for all 29 Utah counties from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024. (Photo: University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute)

Net migration was the top driver in 11 counties, including eight that surpassed the state in percentage growth. Piute County (5.3%) led the state in percentage growth, while Tooele County (3.1%) led the state in percentage growth among counties with at least 5,000 people. With three-fourths of its growth tied to net migration, Tooele nudged out Iron County, which had held that title over the previous three years.

"This trend of high net migration and low natural increase really dominates fast-growing counties in the Wasatch Front and the southwest economic region," Harris said.

Utah, Washington and Rich counties rounded out the top five overall.

Meanwhile, Carbon, Daggett, Emery, Garfield, Kane, Sevier, Summit and Uintah counties all lost population last year. Some of these counties experienced a natural decrease, where deaths outnumbered new births. Some experienced out-migration or both.

It's too early to know how if it's a one-time occurrence or the beginning of a new trend.

"We're starting to see a return to what we were experiencing before COVID," Harris said. "I think that would go for those counties."

The Key Takeaways for this article were generated with the assistance of large language models and reviewed by our editorial team. The article, itself, is solely human-written.