SALT LAKE CITY — Another long and contentious election cycle is one step closer to the finish line Tuesday as voting concludes in Utah and across the nation.

About 1.5 million Utahns are expected to cast ballots by the end of Election Day. More than 800,000 ballots had been processed as of Monday morning, the majority of them by mail, according to Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson.

In-person polling places are open in each county on Election Day. Although the polls close at 8 p.m., voters who are in line by then will be allowed to vote. Because of this, Henderson said early results may not be available immediately after polls are scheduled to close.

"County clerks have been instructed not to publish results until every Utahn waiting in line when the polls close has had a chance to vote," she said Monday. "We will keep everyone updated if there are any delays and ask for patience as our county officials administer the election. We also urge those who have not done so to please return your ballots as soon as possible. The sooner you vote, the more robust our initial results will be."

What to watch for in Utah

Republicans are heavily favored in statewide and federal races in Utah, but the results in several state races — including for governor — could reveal something broader about the Utah electorate.

This year's gubernatorial race has been anything but ordinary. Since losing to Gov. Spencer Cox in the Republican primary, state Rep. Phil Lyman has waged a write-in campaign seeking to unseat the one-term incumbent. Some Republicans fear Lyman's efforts could sabotage the party ticket, while Democrats hope it will give their nominee, Brian King, a better shot at winning.

A pair of political science professors are skeptical that write-in votes for Lyman will ultimately change the outcome but say the margins in the race will be worth watching Tuesday evening.

"If Gov. Cox does as we would expect an incumbent governor to do and wins with 65% of the vote, and does well in all areas of the state, then I don't think there's too much of an issue there," said Matthew Burbank, a professor of political science at the University of Utah. "But, if it's a little bit closer than that, and if we have a lot of write-in ballots for Phil Lyman, that might suggest that there's a lot of unhappiness within the Republican Party, so that may have an impact on how the party develops in the future."

Cox was elected in 2020 with 63% of the popular vote.

James Curry, another professor of political science at the U., noted that it's difficult to poll precisely on write-in candidates because including them as an option in a poll can inflate the support they would otherwise get at the ballot box. He wouldn't be surprised to see Lyman get around 5% of the vote but said an outcome where Lyman earns upwards of 10% would signal broader discontent with Cox among party faithful.

If that's the case, he said, "it's likely to shape the next couple of years in state policymaking. Certainly, that would indicate that the Cox team is going to want to try to do stuff to make those voters happy. My expectation would be lower, but we'll have to see."

Third-party candidates have come close to playing spoiler in past Utah gubernatorial elections, but in both recent instances, the third-party candidate had qualified for the ballot, rather than running as a write-in.

Merrill Cook — who ran for office as a Republican at times — ran as an independent candidate for governor in both 1988 and 1992. In 1988, Republican Norman Bangerter defeated Democrat Ted Wilson by less than 2%, and Republican Mike Leavitt earned only 42% of the vote with Cook running in 1992.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found that 51% of registered voters said they planned to vote for Cox, compared to 19% for King. When the poll included undecided voters who were leaning toward a candidate, Cox's numbers improved to 61%, just shy of his vote share four years ago.

State elections director Ryan Cowley told KSL.com last week his office expects to include write-in votes cast in the governor's race in the unofficial tally available at electionresults.utah.gov.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

As with the statewide race for governor, the majority of Utah voters are expected to cast their votes for Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Utah has been relatively skeptical of Trump given its Republican lean, so the final margin could reveal something about the direction of the GOP in Utah.

Trump won the Beehive State with only 45.54% of the vote in 2016, after nearly 22% of Utah voters backed independent candidate and Utah native Evan McMullin. Trump improved his numbers in 2020 with 58% of the vote but still trailed Cox's margin — meaning about 53,000 more Utahns voted for Cox than Trump.

"I do think that as a candidate, Trump still has the same problems that he's really always had in this state. ... Fifty-eight percent looks good, but that's nowhere near, for example, where (Mitt) Romney got," Burbank said, referring to the Romney's presidential run in 2012 when he won Utah with more than 72% support. "That's an indication of how strongly Republican the state can be and Trump's never really captured it in that way."

This is now the third consecutive presidential campaign with Trump at the top of the ticket, though, and his margin this time around could show whether he has managed to cement support with Republican voters who have been lukewarm during his previous campaigns.

"I think the thing I'm going to be watching with the presidential vote in the state is which direction do things go for Trump," Curry said. "If you see Trump continue to increase his margins then that's a different story about ... Republican voters becoming more comfortable with Trump as their figurehead."

Eligible Utahns can still register in person to cast a provisional ballot on Election Day. It's too late to return ballots through the mail, but voters who received a mail-in ballot can still cast them in person or at a drop box until polls close.

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