Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Pundits have speculated that the June 27 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump may be the most consequential debate in American political history.
They point to Biden's disastrous performance, which kicked off a chain of events culminating with the incumbent dropping off the Democratic ticket and the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's nominee.
Tuesday's contest between Harris and Trump, the first — and likely only — head-to-head debate between the major party candidates, is not likely to create the same political earthquake as the June debate, but it still presents major opportunities for both candidates as Trump hopes to arrest an early boost of momentum for Democrats and Harris strives to define herself to the American electorate.
What Harris needs to win
The debate this week takes on additional import for both candidates because it is the only scheduled face off between Trump and Harris, according to Matthew Burbank, a political science professor at the University of Utah.
"While presidential election debates often have no discernible effect on the intentions of voters, they can sometimes be quite important," he told KSL.com Monday, referencing the June 27 debate. "For me, the broader question about the meaning of this debate is: Does it allow the Harris-Walz ticket to continue the positive momentum they have had, or does it allow Donald Trump and (running mate) JD Vance the opportunity to stop or slow that momentum by changing the narrative?"
As with past presidential election cycles, Trump and Biden were initially scheduled to debate three times in the final two months of the campaign — with the University of Utah set to host the final debate on Oct. 9. But those plans were scrapped in May when the pair agreed to two separate debates on June 27 and Sept. 10.
Although Harris has served as vice president since 2021, she has been at the top of the ticket for a relatively short period of time, and Tuesday could be her best chance to make her case to a prime-time audience of Americans.
"Harris is less well known than Trump to many voters, so this debate is about showing that she is a credible candidate for president in a challenging circumstance — being attacked by Donald Trump," Burbank said. "If Harris can at least hold her own in the exchanges with Trump, she will be in a position to claim victory, keep her momentum going and avoid additional debates."
Harris has spent the days preceding the debate holed up in a hotel in Pittsburgh to prepare, according to the New York Times, which reported she plans to try to appeal to voters who are concerned about the state of the economy and to cast her opponent as a wealthy businessman who is not interested in improving the lives of Americans.
What Trump needs to win
Trump, on the other hand, has held a handful of "policy time" sessions in advance of the debate, and his advisers have expressed hope that he will be "happy Trump," not "mean, bully Trump," on Tuesday night.
Trump campaign advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles issued a statement Monday criticizing Harris for a lack of public interviews since she took over as nominee and casting her as "a radical left lunatic."
"Now that her honeymoon is over, the debate will be the first time Kamala will answer tough questions," the statement said. "The high-bar expectations facing Kamala Harris is that for every new idea put forward, Harris has to explain both the damage she's done to our economy as the sitting vice president, as well as answer why she hasn't implemented any of these new plans during the last three and a half years."
Trump enters the night with a lot more name recognition than Harris, and the contest will be "less about what viewers think of him" because most already have strong opinions either way, Burbank said.
"But, Trump wins if he can raise doubts about Harris as a potential president while at the same time avoiding attacks that are too personal or can be seen as being 'out of bounds,'" he said, saying Trump could hurt himself by attacking Harris' gender or racial identity. "Such attacks will not hurt Trump with his dedicated supporters, but it could lead to a loss of support among key groups such as suburban women that Trump needs."
What to watch for
While the 90-minute debate will likely not delve deep into any particular policy issue, Burbank said the exercise will present viewers with an opportunity to compare both candidates in a "high-pressure setting."
"This debate will be a valuable comparison of the two candidates in a side-by-side setting and so is generally the best opportunity for voters to form a view of how each would be as president," he said. "If by the end of the debate, a viewer can conclude that this candidate is the kind of person that they can see as president and they would like to have represent them as president, then the debate will have provided valuable information for that viewer.
"Similarly, if the viewer concludes that a candidate does not appear to be presidential, that too can be useful — albeit negative — information," Burbank said.
Trump and Harris will debate in Philadelphia beginning at 7 p.m. The debate is hosted by ABC News.
