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WASHINGTON — Rep. Celeste Maloy is on track to secure the Republican Party nomination over Colby Jenkins in the 2nd Congressional District primary race with a lead of 214 votes as of Tuesday's count. Jenkins has confirmed he will request a recount following the state certification on July 22.
Maloy was endorsed by former President Donald Trump after ballots were already in mailboxes in June, while Jenkins was endorsed by Utah Sen. Mike Lee in April. The prolonged GOP showdown between the recently elected incumbent and her insurgent challenger has shined a spotlight on their opposing endorsements even as it has put Maloy's short, seven-month voting record to the test.
Lee broke with longtime personal precedent — and with the political norm of opposing fellow GOP lawmakers — when he endorsed Jenkins, a political newcomer, against Maloy, his newest Utah congressional colleague, just two days before the state GOP nominating convention in April, which Jenkins won 57%-43%. Jenkins' upset victory forced a primary rematch and nearly ousted Maloy, who was relying on a win at the convention to get on the primary ballot.
The endorsement marked Lee's first time using his influence among Utah conservatives in a congressional primary at home. While some Lee supporters say his endorsement has been a net negative for his influence in the state, advisers to Lee and Jenkins say the gamble helped Lee's political brand.
According to Lee's chief strategist, Dan Hauser, the senior senator's aggressive electoral strategy has been vindicated by nearly upsetting a well-supported incumbent who had Trump's endorsement with "an unknown but fantastic candidate."
"He went up against the former — and soon to be next — president of our nation, and the entire Utah establishment — including the governor, the federal delegation, lobbyists, donors, much of the media, and most consultants," Hauser told the Deseret News. "Sen. Lee's endorsement alone has made that race so close that a recount is highly likely. If that doesn't show influence, I don't know what does."
Jenkins' campaign consultant, Greg Powers, had a similar view of Lee's endorsement. By showing he can stand up to the GOP elite, as he has long been known to do, Lee's endorsement has paid off — even if his candidate doesn't receive the nomination, according to Powers.
"Either way, this is a clear win for the Lee brand. To go against everybody else in the delegation, and the former president, and to take somebody out of nowhere — we started at 15% and put it into this," Powers said. "Mike Lee's already won with this race."
The effect of Lee's 2nd District endorsement
Lee's endorsement, which sent shockwaves through Utah political circles — surprising even some of his closest former staffers — elevated Jenkins' candidacy and helped him with national endorsements, PAC spending and increased name recognition.
Following the convention, Lee went all in for Jenkins. He filled his social media with supportive posts, filmed video ads, sent out fundraising emails and stumped at campaign events across the district, with a focus in conservative Washington County, where Jenkins holds a primary lead of 59%-40%.
But by that point, most of the momentum of Lee's endorsement had already run out, according to one Utah Republican operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
"If the senator's impact was going to be anywhere it was going to be at the convention," the source said. "And the fact that that didn't play out the way he wanted was kind of the losing moment."
While some GOP insiders, including Glenn Beck, told the Deseret News the opposing endorsements between Lee and Trump did not reflect a broader divide, the GOP operative said it may have hurt perceptions of Lee as a close confidant of Trump.
"The worst part of all of this for Sen. Lee was that it put him and former President Trump on the opposite sides of the campaign," the source said.
Trump weighed in on his second Utah primary race of the election cycle when he endorsed Maloy a week before the primary, adding his stamp of approval to a list of high profile endorsements for Maloy, including from two former top Trump officials, as well as House Speaker Mike Johnson and Utah's entire U.S. House delegation.
In addition to potentially hurting Lee's chances at snagging a position in a future Trump administration, the source said Lee's endorsement could create a lasting cleavage within Utah's congressional delegation. "And that is a loss for him and is a bigger loss for the state."
Utah County Commissioner Amelia Powers Gardner said she believes Lee's endorsement made the 2nd District race more competitive. "But obviously not enough to put Colby Jenkins over the top."
As someone who supports Lee, and who previously received his endorsement after serving as a spokesperson for his campaign, Powers Gardner is worried the senator's increased engagement in Utah elections may have done the opposite of what he hoped for and "diluted his influence significantly."
Lee endorsed in a dozen state and municipal primary races this year. In several, Powers Gardner said Lee "was just 100% completely off base."
