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SALT LAKE CITY — As the dust settles on the 2024 Republican primaries in Utah, one thing is clear: Republican voters at large do not mirror the 4,000 or so GOP delegates who voted in the April nominating convention.
Utah law allows candidates two paths to qualify for a primary ballot — by advancing from the party convention or by collecting signatures — but candidates who opted for the convention-only path dramatically underperformed their convention showings when put to the ballot on Tuesday evening.
The results in several races were expected and in line with previous elections, in which Republican primary voters are known to favor different candidates than those who come out of convention. Sen. Mitt Romney won the 2018 GOP primary for Senate after losing at convention, and some congressional candidates have also gone on to win elections after failing to get a majority of the delegate support.
In five of the six most prominent races for Senate, Congress, governor and attorney general, candidates who won at convention this cycle lost or are trailing in the latest unofficial ballot counts. In some races, the primary results were a dramatic reversal of fortunes for convention-only candidates.
- Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs earned nearly 70% of the delegate vote in the race for U.S. Senate but had only 31% of the vote in the primary election. Rep. John Curtis boasts nearly 50% of the primary vote and was declared the winner shortly after polls closed.
- Paul Miller defeated incumbent Rep. Blake Moore at convention with 55% of the vote, but Moore dominated the primary, winning 72%-28% to earn renomination in the 1st Congressional District.
- Colby Jenkins outpaced Rep. Celeste Maloy at convention with nearly 57% of the vote, but Maloy currently leads in the 2nd Congressional District primary with 51%. That race is still too close to call.
- State Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, trounced Gov. Spencer Cox in the gubernatorial race at convention with 68% of the delegate vote only to lose to the incumbent in the primary by nearly 12 points. Lyman initially filed with the intent to gather signatures but backed out ahead of the convention.
- Frank Mylar got nearly 60% of the delegate vote for attorney general only to come in third on Tuesday night. Derek Brown, who was eliminated in the first round at convention, won the primary with nearly 45% of the vote.
State Sen. Mike Kennedy — who was declared the winner of the race for Utah's 3rd Congressional District — is the only convention winner to win a primary, but even his numbers with the primary electorate are significantly lower than his margin at convention.
Kennedy currently holds about 37% of the vote in the five-person race, after earning nearly 60% of the delegate vote in the final round at convention, when there were three candidates still eligible. For a closer comparison to the five-man race for the 3rd Congressional District, Kennedy earned 55% of the delegate vote in the fourth round of convention voting, when all but five candidates had been eliminated.
A spokesman for Kennedy told KSL.com that "despite being vastly outspent" in the primary, Kennedy won the race "decisively."
"This victory is a testament to his proven, trusted record, tireless dedication, and ability to work with others," the statement continued. "No team outworked us this election cycle as we ran a positive, solution-focused campaign that resonated with Utahns and Americans eager to heal a broken Washington."
Although some county Republican parties stirred up controversy leading up to the primary election by sending out mailers listing only the candidates who earned at least 40% of the delegate vote, Utah Republican Party Chairman Rob Axson released a statement Wednesday pledging support for all GOP winners.
"We recognize that primaries, by their nature, divide voters into supporting different candidates," he said. "As a party, we now invite Republicans to unify around our principles and our nominees."
Any candidate who earns at least 40% of the delegate vote at convention can advance to the primary regardless of whether they gathered signatures, so Axson told KSL NewsRadio on Wednesday that the party considers Moore and Maloy to be "convention winners" even though they didn't receive a majority of the vote.
"We shouldn't be afraid of competition," he said. "We also should not be afraid as citizens ... and party participants when folks come together and they vote in elections. If the results go the way of your preferred candidate, fantastic. But what I found in my 20 years of voting, I'm probably only batting about 50%, right? Half the time the people I vote for win. Half the time they don't, and that's part of the process."
He noted that down-ballot convention-only candidates have performed well in state legislative races, even if voters prefer different candidates in the high-profile races. And because collecting signatures is a costly and time-consuming endeavor, he said the convention path is still a valuable option for more candidates to qualify for a primary even if they ultimately lose.
The Utah Republican Party previously sued over SB54 — a compromise bill following the Count My Vote initiative that allowed for the dual path to the ballot — an ultimately losing proposition that helped plunge the party $100,000 into debt by 2019. It would be up to lawmakers to change the signature-gathering path to the ballot, but Axson said the state GOP is still committed to the convention route going forward.
"That's the nomination process. That's where we really want to engage with folks that are wanting to represent our party," he said. "We wholeheartedly support our nominees. So, whoever those nominees are, regardless of how they qualify for the primary ballot, the Utah Republican Party will work tirelessly to make sure that they are successful in November and we appreciate them representing us."
