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SALT LAKE CITY — In a year when Utah Jazz and NBA fans are clamoring for a top draft pick, it is never too early to look at how the NBA draft might play out.
ESPN has its mock draft machine every year, and since it just came out, here's how the draft could play out.
The machine uses the current standings to weigh the percentages and kick out a randomly ordered mock draft with Chad Ford picking for the teams depending on how he believes each club would respond in that position. Here are 20 spins on the machine to give everyone an early look at the Jazz’s chance at the top pick, or whether Jabari Parker might fall to them.
Currently, the best the Jazz can do is first and the worst is sixth.
Parker was selected by the Jazz six times, tied for most with Australian guard Dante Exum. Parker is the local favorite if he is on the board for the Jazz. The small forward from Duke is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and could fit as a superstar in Utah.
The Jazz had the first pick five times, taking Parker in all of those as well as once when they picked second. When Parker fell to the Jazz, the Denver Nuggets took Kansas shooting guard Andrew Wiggins.
Breaking down the percentages. Currently the Jazz have a 15.6 percent chance to land the first pick
| Pick number | Percentage |
|---|---|
| One | 25% |
| Two | 20% |
| Three | 10% |
| Four | 15% |
| Five | 25% |
| Six | 5% |
Wiggins was picked by the Jazz four times, most often with the second pick when the Milwaukee Bucks took Parker first. That was the case in three scenarios. In the other, he was the third pick when the Bucks took Parker and the Sacramento Kings took Exum.
Exum is a bit of a mystery in America. On the mock draft, Ford said, “If he were playing in the U.S., he would be a contender for the No. 1 overall pick.” He is 6-foot-6 and can play both positions, but his primary position is point guard. He has great athletic ability to go along with good length for his position.
Out of the six times the Jazz took Exum, they were picking fifth four times and fourth twice.
How often the Jazz got each player
| Player | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Jabari Parker | 30% |
| Andrew Wiggins | 20% |
| Julius Randle | 5% |
| Marcus Smart | 5% |
| Dante Exum | 30% |
| Joel Embiid | 10% |
The other players the Jazz selected were Joel Embiid of Kansas twice and Julius Randle of Kentucky and Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State, each once.
Embiid is a 7-foot center who has been compared to Hakeem Olajuwon. He is another freshman who is considered a rare force at center. The Jazz picked him with the third and fourth pick once when Parker and Wiggins were gone in each situation.
Randle was picked with the fifth pick in his only appearance. The freshman power forward has battled Parker and Wiggins for the top spot early this season and has produced huge numbers this season, averaging 17.4 points and 10.9 rebounds per game.
Smart would have been a top-two pick last year but went back to college to hone his craft. Like Exum, he is a big point guard who can play both positions. He is scoring 17.5 points per game this season.
While the numbers will change as the season goes along, this is a good starting point for fans to look at as the season breaks down. This will be revisited as the season goes on.
