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Two days after an attention-grabbing win at nationally-ranked Gonzaga, BYU stumbled on the road this past Saturday at Portland, a setback that prolonged a pattern of losses to West Coast Conference also-rans--losses that have previously prevented the Cougars from contending for a West Conference crown, while also denting BYU's postseason portfolio.
Of BYU's league losses since joining the WCC in 2011-12, more than a third of the defeats have come against teams that would finish the season with a losing record in conference play (Portland entered Saturday's game with a 2-4 conference mark).
As a Mountain West Conference member in six seasons from 2005-06 through 2010-11, Dave Rose's BYU teams rarely lost to the league's lesser lights--indeed, just over a tenth of the Cougars' rare conference losses were to teams that finished with a losing league record (see chart below).
Essentially, BYU avoided "slipping up" in the MWC; they won practically all of the games they were supposed to win, and as a result, never finished lower than 2nd place in that league during the Rose era, earning four regular-season championships in six seasons.
In the WCC, annual so-called slip-ups have helped keep BYU from anything better than a tie for 2nd place (twice), with two 3rd-place finishes also dotting the Cougars' four-season résumé. Saturday's loss at Portland, while by no means fatal to BYU's WCC title hopes, did prevent BYU from establishing an early inside lane on the championship road, with its road win at Gonzaga having provided a potential separation point between conference championship contenders.
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It was immediately after the Gonzaga upset that BYU players were saying only a win at Portland would validate the victory in Spokane. BYU would go on trail for most of the day at the Chiles Center, eventually falling 84-81 to a Pilot program that entered the contest on a four-game skid, with RPI and Pomeroy ratings well south of 200, and losses to UC Davis and Idaho State on its record. Portland was also coming off a Thursday setback to San Diego that gave the struggling Toreros their first conference win of the season.
Saturday's game was one that BYU, or any title hopeful, should have expected to win, but such losses have unfortunately become common during the Cougars' WCC tenure.
It is important to note that BYU has overcome some disappointing league results to earn at-large bids to the NCAA tournament in three of four WCC campaigns--including in 2013-14, when BYU lost to four bottom-half programs (LMU, Pepperdine, Portland and Pacific--all on the road), and still earned a berth in the Big Dance.
Two years ago, BYU's bad in-league losses were counterbalanced by a 3-1 regular-season record v. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, as well as non-league victories over Texas and Stanford, not to mention a very strong out-of-conference schedule strength.
This season, while a 3-1 regular-season mark against the Zags and Gaels is still within reach, the non-conference performance portfolio is not what is was two seasons ago. BYU's non-league losses to Long Beach State and Harvard have not been countered with any nationally notable wins.
BYU could yet propel itself back into the WCC driver's seat, and a home-heavy back half of the conference campaign will certainly help. While the Cougars have earned their way into three of four NCAA tournaments as an at-large entrant from the WCC, this may be a season in which BYU has to win the regular-season league title, or at least take its league-title aspirations into the final weekend, to keep alive its at-large Big Dance dreams. Barring those developments, it's possible that the only way in will be winning a league tournament championship--something BYU last accomplished in 2001.
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BYU's WCC record is particularly interesting, as it relates to the Cougars' prior performance and dominance in the Mountain West Conference. WCC venues are smaller and programs are funded differently than their MWC counterparts, and while Gonzaga and Saint Mary's were clearly-established league front-runners, the extent to which BYU has struggled with the rest of the conference could not have been foreseen, considering the way BYU perennially took care of business in its former league.
The following chart illustrates the relative difficulty BYU has experienced in avoiding the upset bug that rarely bit as a member of the MWC:
BYU Basketball: MWC v. WCC in the Dave Rose Era
| Overall Regular Season League Record | League Record Home | League Record Away | League Losses to Teams Finishing At/Above .500 (conf. play) | League Losses to Teams Finishing Below .500 (conf. play) | % of League Losses to Teams Finishing Below .500 (conf. play) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU in MWC (2006-2011) | 78-18 (81.3%) | 45-3 (93.8%) | 33-15 (68.8%) | 16 (3 home/13 away) | 2 (2 away) | 11.1% |
| BYU in WCC (2012-2016) | 52-22 (70.3%) | 29-7 (80.6%) | 23-15 (60.5%) | 14 (6 home/8 away) | 8 (1 home/7 away) | 36.4% |
Of BYU's 22 regular-season league losses suffered since joining the WCC, 11 have come courtesy of the Zags and Gaels, with the other 11 setbacks scattered among six conference foes (BYU has not lost to Santa Clara as a WCC member).
Four of the aforementioned six teams have multiple wins over BYU in regular-season conference competition, including Loyola Marymount (2) and Pepperdine (3)--the Cougars' road opponents this coming weekend.
In four WCC seasons, BYU has only twice played both Los Angeles-area teams on the same road swing, and has yet to sweep the pair. BYU got swept by the Lions and Waves on the Cougars' 2014 SoCal trip, and split the weekend games last year, losing at Pepperdine and winning at LMU.
Finishing with a better end-of-season Pomeroy rating than the MWC after each of the last two seasons, the WCC has demonstrated a top-to-bottom capability level that also plays into the numbers observed since BYU joined the league.
While this season has seen some marginal slippage in the WCC's Pomeroy number (from 9th to 11th, among 32 conferences), the league performs better than what might be considered its perception. Offensively, during conference play, the WCC is among the best leagues nationally, currently ranking in the top 10 in eFG%, and top five in offensive efficiency, three-point field goal percentage and free-throw percentage. Defenses are well-tested throughout the WCC.
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Only six games into an 18-game conference campaign, there is plenty of time to make amends for the loss at Portland. BYU will finish the league slate with 7 of its final 10 games at home, and those home games include dates with both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga, so the Cougars ultimately control their conference championship destiny.
Also playing in BYU's favor is the Rose-era tendency for the Cougars to play some of their best basketball down the stretch. Rose's February record record as a WCC member is 21-7, including three 6-1 slates over four seasons.
January concludes with the LMU/Pepperdine road swing followed by the same two teams in the same order, the next week in Provo. If the Cougars can "Beat L.A." over the coming couple of weeks, they'll set themselves up to hopefully stage another fantastic February finish.
