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SALT LAKE CITY — There's a debate raging inside of the Jazz's front offices, a debate that's gone on since at least the NBA trade deadline.
With hours to go until the NBA's free agency period begins, the question is: should the Jazz sign a big-name free agent this summer? In Tuesday's article on Grantland, NBA analyst Zach Lowe summed up one side of the debate.
"There might be only around 10 teams who end up with max-level cap room this summer. Nearly everyone will have that sort of space a year from now, and some teams will have enough for two max contracts — plus a third mid-sized deal. Cap room today is worth more than cap room tomorrow, especially for nondestination teams who can’t compete with the glamour boys on the open market. A bunch of those teams — Utah, Orlando, Milwaukee, Detroit, Phoenix and others — have cap room this summer, and they should be hell-bent on using it. I don’t really even care who they sign, provided it’s not an obviously below-average player on the downswing. Pick a young or mid-career free agent and splurge. Almost any deal with a solid player at $15 million or below this summer will look fine once the cap cracks $100 million. Have a jones for Khris Middleton? MAX HIM OUT. Hesitant to snap up Greg Monroe in free agency because you already have one decent low-post guy? SIGN HIM ANYWAY. Does $12 million for DeMarre Carroll or Danny Green seem insane? They’re in their primes, and they do very important NBA things well. GO GET THEM. Barring disaster, these guys will be on tradable contracts if the fit isn’t ideal on your team."
On the other hand, the idea that nearly any free agent signed by the Jazz is likely to significantly reduce minutes for one or multiple of the Jazz's young players. Using one of Lowe's examples, if the Jazz were to sign Middleton, one of the plus-minus superstars of last season, they'd probably reasonably expect to play him at least 30 minutes per game.
But Gordon Hayward is better, so he deserves to play at least 30 MPG, too, leaving a combined 36 MPG at the wing positions for Alec Burks and Rodney Hood. Burks averaged 33 minutes per game last season and Hood had 21 MPG, so whose minutes do you slash? Those players are 23 and 22, respectively, and limiting their minutes now may hinder their development.
The other issue: Those young players are actually good. Middleton or Green are probably worth $12-$15 million, in a vacuum, over a replacement-level player. But over Hood and Burks, that relative positional upgrade is probably just worth less than it might be to, say, Detroit.
There are general managers in the league who would call that a good problem, and it might be: if you have more talent than necessary at a position, you can make a trade later for a future asset that might help you out in a position of need, as Lowe references.
But Utah sees consequences of that model in the Phoenix Suns, who jumped on an opportunity to sign Isaiah Thomas last summer at a relative bargain, only to see the clash of three starting-caliber point guards on their team create a train wreck that resulted in the fire sale of two of them. You also have to wonder if Enes Kanter's unhappiness with his diminished role taught a lesson as well.
The Jazz are unique in that they have quality young players at every position where you can apply this argument. At the big man spots, they can't (and won't) sign Paul Millsap because he'd compete for minutes with Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert and now Trey Lyles. And even at the Jazz's point guard position, where their offensive output was worst in the NBA last season, the team has such belief in Dante Exum's potential that it doesn't want to take away his starting position lest it cost him down the road.
Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey explained last Friday that head coach Quin Snyder has essentially vetoed the idea of trading Exum.
Our best free agent, I've said this before, is Alec Burks.
–Dennis Lindsey
“He’s been great, and so when we have people calling us for Dante Exum, Quin has stopped that,” Lindsey said. “He’s like, ‘I believe in him. I believe in his makeup. I believe in his insides.’ I can just tick that off.”
The counterargument is the Jazz are therefore risking a lot on the development of Exum and Hood. If they don't turn into good players, then the Jazz have essentially wasted their temporary competitive advantage of having cap space this summer. If the Jazz aren't good as a result, then can they acquire players as a bad team in the summer of 2016, when nearly every team will have max cap space? And if not, then Hayward could leave after the 2016-17 season. Young players don't always develop as expected. In fact, they usually don't.
It's a real debate, with real back and forth along these lines. And as I indicated, key people in the Jazz's FO are taking both sides of the big-free-agent-or-not dilemma. This kind of discussion is healthy, and avoids monolithic group-think.
But I think Lindsey's quote that "Our best free agent, I've said this before, is Alec Burks" is instructive of Lindsey's position in the Jazz's dilemma. He's choosing to prioritize the players he has on the roster now over the players he could acquire.
In short, I think it's fair to expect a relatively quiet free agency season from the Jazz.
