Estimated read time: 16-17 minutes
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The 2014 BYU football season is replete with promise. The collection of offensive talent returning and the confidence emanating from coordinator Robert Anae lead Cougar fans to believe that BYU's attack could be among the program's most prolific.
While Bronco Mendenhall relinquishes play-calling responsibilities to coordinator Nick Howell, the head coach's defensive system is a proven commodity, and despite some key losses on that side of the ball, expectations are that the BYU defense will do considerably more than simply keep the Cougars in every game.
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BYU's quest for that elusive "special season," however, may be as much a function of schedule as it will be on-field performance. The 2014 slate will feature the fewest "power" teams of the four schedules BYU has played during its independent era, with only three on the docket, compared to eight (including bowl opponent) in 2013, five in 2012 and four in 2011.
Furthermore, the three "Power 5" teams BYU will face in 2014 combined to go 11-26 in 2013, with California (1-11) and Virginia (2-10) dwelling in their league's respective cellars. Texas (8-5 last season) highlights this season's docket, but the Longhorns are dealing with both a coaching change and the reality that the NFL Draft included not a single Texas player for the first time since 1937 (the draft began in 1936).
The presence of some of the best non-Power 5 teams will help to improve BYU's overall schedule quality, but the fact remains: BYU's 2014 schedule is the kind of slate a very good team should expect to navigate with expectations of success.
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Ranked by the 2014 opponents' 2013 win percentage, BYU's 2014 schedule is tied for 97th among 128 FBS teams, while Phil Steele ranks BYU's schedule strength 73rd nationally. As ranked by Steele, only one Power 5 program (Duke) has a weaker projected schedule than BYU in 2014.
Bronco Mendenhall has stated that a ten-win season and national ranking are his annual baseline standards of success, with anything surpassing that entering "special season" territory. In this, the first season of the college football playoff era, BYU can justifiably hope to be mentioned among the country's best teams, record-wise, with double-digit wins a distinct possibility. Whether or not such a distinction can be attained may be determined as early as week two, at Texas.
Other land mines dot BYU's 2014 landscape, but a win in Austin sets up as the likely foundation upon which a nationally-significant season would rest. With that in mind, I have decided to rank BYU's 12 regular-season games, from easiest to hardest.
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I had relatively little difficulty determining the group that would comprise the five toughest games on the slate, while games six through 11 (FCS foe Savannah State is 12th by default) were a bit harder for me to assess in order of difficulty, and I could be persuaded to juggle those games' final rankings with minimal argument.
Ultimately, a two-tiered slate became evident, with the top five FBS opponents separated somewhat from the bottom six. For each game, I included thumbnail observations on why the projected ranking might be either too high or too low. Consideration was given to the game's venue, which could serve as a tie-breaker when considering certain matchups.
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12. Savannah State: Saturday, Nov. 22, LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU is 8-0 all-time v. FCS/I-AA teams (average score: 47-9); Savannah State is 0-4 all-time v. FBS teams (average score: 71-3). Both sides know what they're getting into here.
Why this ranking is too high: N/A
Why this ranking is too low: not a chance.
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11. UNLV: Saturday, Nov. 15, LaVell Edwards Stadium
UNLV recently had its 2014 bowl ban rescinded, but the brief period of NCAA sanctions led to a projected starting senior running back and one of the program's best senior offensive lineman (also a team captain) leaving for Power 5 pastures. The Rebels must also replace the last season's starting quarterback and leading rusher.
Why this ranking is too high: not that it really can be too high (as the lowest-ranked game against an FBS opponent), but BYU has historically dominated UNLV (15-3 record all-time), and has won the last six games in this series by an average score of 48-16.
UNLV's 7-6 campaign in 2013 featured only one win over a team that finished with a winning record; the Rebels' postseason appearance (36-14 loss to North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl) was its first since 2000, so sustained success is not a UNLV hallmark.
It's tough to find a national observer who ranks the 2014 Rebels in the top 100, but many of those projections were made under the assumption that UNLV would be ineligible for postseason play. Steele notes that over the last 10 years, UNLV is 1-16 in regular-season away games played in November/December.
Why this ranking is too low: Bronco has a ton of respect for UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck and is probably not expecting this to be his team's second-easiest game. The Rebels have new life after the bowl- ban overturn and field perhaps the MWC's best wideout in Devante Davis (87 rec/1,290 yds/14 td in 2013). Players and coaches will be out to prove that they are not one-hit wonders.
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10. Connecticut: Friday, August 29, Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Conn.
UConn lost its first nine games of 2013 (including a 33-18 defeat at the hands of Towson State) and changed coaches in the offseason. Its leading returning ball-carrier recently left the program, and the team is still looking for a defined starter at QB. For these reasons and others, the Huskies aren't considered a serious threat to the Cougars.
That said, we saw what happened when BYU appeared to take for granted a poor Virginia team in an east-coast opener last year. Also playing in the Huskies' favor: new head man Bob Diaco was the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame teams that handled BYU in each of the last two seasons. He knows how to beat the Cougars, but he also doesn't have the horses to duplicate the feats of the Fighting Irish.
Why this ranking is too high: UConn is taking the very first steps in a significant rebuilding effort, and it's too much to expect the Huskies to go punch-for-punch with a BYU team boasting continuity on the field and in the meeting rooms. BYU is a 16.5-point road favorite for some very good reasons.
Why this ranking is too low: season openers are often a crapshoot, and even though BYU returns a ton of key players at important positions, the Cougars are notoriously slow starters; in the Bronco Mendenhall era, BYU's eight FBS season openers have seen BYU average 16.6 points per game—-roughly equal to the margin by which BYU is favored to beat the Huskies. Under Mendenhall, the Cougars have lost six of their seven games played in the Eastern time zone. The Diaco factor could be the UConn's secret weapon.
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9. Middle Tennessee: Saturday, Nov. 1, Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tenn.
Last season, BYU easily handled at home a Blue Raiders team that would finish 8-5 and play in a bowl game. This season, Middle loses its starting quarterback and most of last year's starting offense. Defense should be a strength, but by November, BYU could be a well-oiled offensive machine.
Like UNLV last season, Middle earned its postseason ticket while beating only one team with a winning record. The Blue Raiders went from 4-4 to 8-4 by winning four straight teams against teams that ended the season with a combined record of 6-42. In their bowl games, the Raiders got rolled by Navy, 24-6.
Why this ranking is too high: Even with a quarterback (Logan Kilgore) who left Middle Tennessee as the career leader in TD passes, the Blue Raiders got drilled by 27 points in Provo--and that was with BYU turning the ball over five times, with a minus-4 margin. Middle Tennessee's eight-win record was a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors job.
Why this ranking is too low: BYU has never been to Murfreesboro, where a small but enthused contingent of fans will support a team that did cobble together a winning season and postseason bid last year; this should be one of the bigger games seen in that neck of the woods. RBs Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley (also a kick returner) can be a handful on the right day.
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8. California: Saturday, Nov. 29, Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif.
The Bears host BYU and close the regular season a week after the annual "Big Game" with Stanford--a game the Cardinal won by 50 points last year. While the meeting with BYU might offer Cal a final chance to enter the offseason with a positive feeling, it's also possible that many players will have mentally checked out after the annual rivalry affair, unless a bowl bid were to be riding on the outcome of the season finale. Considering Cal's 1-11 mark last season and a 2014 schedule that again ranks among the nation's toughest, that's a long shot at best.
Why this ranking is too high: only one FBS team allowed more yards per game last season, and the Bears are on a streak of 14 consecutive games having allowed 30 points or more. Cal was winless against FBS competition in 2013. The climb to the upper reaches of the top in the Pac-12 has never looked steeper.
Why this ranking is too low: like BYU, Cal is in its second year with an up-tempo attack, and improvement should be expected during the second go-round. Four key defenders who missed most or all of last season due to injury are back. A new defensive coordinator has been brought in, while on offense, QB Jared Goff set Cal single-season records for passing yards, total offense, passes completed and passes attempted- -as a freshman--and has a very deep core of receivers at his disposal. Cal suffers as much due to the comparative strength of the Pac-12 as it does due to its own inadequacies, which were numerous in 2013.
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7. Nevada: Saturday, Oct. 18, LaVell Edwards Stadium
Despite sleepwalking through the first half of last year's meeting in Reno, BYU had enough in reserve to come back and then hold off the Wolfpack in the season-ender for rookie head coach Brian Polian. This year's UNR team should be better, with prolific dual-threat signal-caller Cody Fajardo leading the way in his senior season after missing two games while injured last year. Linemen Brock Hekking is one of the better defenders in the west.
Why this ranking is too high: a generally lackluster BYU effort was enough to beat UNR on the road last year; the task should ostensibly be made easier in Provo. BYU ran for almost 400 yards at Nevada, which struggled to stop the run all year and missed out on the postseason for the first time in nine years.
Why this ranking is too low: Last year's sub-par outing may end up a blip as Fajardo returns to full health while battling USU's Chuckie Keeton for the title of top QB in the MWC. Fajardo's backfield returns relatively intact. Wolfpack bring back 10 of 11 starters on defense and could reasonably hope to be back in the bowl picture in 2014.
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6. Virginia: Saturday, Sept. 20, LaVell Edwards Stadium
The Cavaliers' only win against an FBS team last season came in its season-opening 19-16 decision over BYU, in stormy Charlottesville. The debut of Anae's up-tempo attack was an exercise in futility, with the Cougars averaging a paltry 3.9 yards per play. Hapless Virginia was held to only 3.0 yards per play and 223 yards on the day, yet somehow found a way to emerge victorious.
Why this ranking is too high: UVa leaves home only once in the first seven weeks of the season, and that one trip is to play BYU at altitude. The Cavaliers have benched last season's incumbent quarterback, while last season's returning leading receiver (tight end Jake McGee) decided to transfer. Head coach Mike London's seat is hot, and his team could conceivably arrive in Provo on a 12-game FBS losing skid.
Why this ranking is too low: Virginia's recent record doesn't match its talent level, which for the last few seasons has been impressive, from a recruiting standpoint. RB Kevin Parks, DB Anthony Harris and DE Eli Harold are among the ACC's best at their positions. And, to reiterate, the Cavaliers did beat BYU last season. Scoreboard has to count for something.
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5. Utah State: Friday, Oct. 3, LaVell Edwards Stadium
We all know Utah State is a much improved program, but the fact remains that over the last 40 years, the Aggies have beaten BYU four times. That's an average of once a decade, and the Ags aren't due for a few more years, having last defeated the Cougars in 2010. The returns of Keeton and RB Joe Hill should increase the chances of a shootout in Provo. USU is 20-7 over the last two seasons, with two of those losses coming against BYU.
Why this ranking is too high: Utah State has lost 17 straight games in Provo.
Why this ranking is too low: BYU's point total against Utah State over the last five meetings at LaVell Edwards Stadium: 54, 38, 35, 27, 6. The Aggies' defense is trending in the right direction, in Provo.
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4. Houston: Thursday, Sept. 11, LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU's 47-46 win last year in Houston was a tour de force for Taysom Hill, who became one of a handful of QBs in FBS history to throw for 400-plus yards and run for 100-plus yards in the same game. It also displayed the aerial talents of UH freshman John O'Korn, who essentially matched Hill's passing performance in one of the wildest games of the 2013 season. 17 starters return for a UH team that was a remarkable plus-25 in turnover margin last season.
Why this ranking is too high: Houston wobbled down the stretch in 2013, losing four of its last five games. Teams with extraordinary turnover-margin numbers one season tend to come back down to earth the next season. Houston will be playing its first away game of the season, after two soft contests to open the 2014 campaign.
Why this ranking is too low: O'Korn leads an offense that returns essentially of the playmakers who caused fits for a traditionally stout BYU defense. The UH defense forced 43 turnovers last year, eight more than the next highest number turned in. BYU will be under pressure to perform in its home opener, coming off a short week after a tough game at Texas. UH will have just had a breather against Grambling.
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3. Boise State: Friday, Oct. 24, Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
BYU finally got off the mat against Boise State in 2013, registering the program's first win over the Broncos after three straight setbacks to start a series that is now contracted annually through 2023. It could be argued that BYU's 37-20 home win over BSU was the team's most complete performance of the 2013 season.
Why this ranking is too high: Boise State is in its first year with a new head coach and coordinators, and while new head man Bryan Harsin is no stranger to the program (served previously as OC), Chris Petersen's magic touch has gone with him to Washington. BSU has yet to win an outright MWC title after dominating the WAC for a decade. Last season, six opponents scored 30 points or more against the Broncos. Any aura of invincibility has disappeared, along with Petersen, as evidenced by last season's relatively pedestrian 8-5 record.
Why this ranking is too low: BYU has never won in Boise, and the Broncos have lost only four home games (92-4) over the last 15 seasons. BYU will be operating on a short week, having played the previous Saturday. Boise State will be hosting the second of consecutive Friday night home games. The Broncos may be out to break the stadium single- game attendance record, set in 2012 when the Cougars last visited. BSU returns its top QB, RB, WRs, and most key defenders not named Demarcus Lawrence.
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2. Central Florida: Thursday, Oct. 9, Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
The first meeting between these two teams took place back in 2011, when Jake Heaps was still BYU's starting quarterback, and Blake Bortles' only appearance was as a brief injury replacement. A lot has happened since the Cougars' comeback 24-17 win that night: Heaps has since moved on to two different programs, while Bortles went on to lead UCF to a 22-5 record over the last two seasons, culminating in a Fiesta Bowl demolition of Baylor this past January. Bortles was picked third overall in the 2014 NFL Draft, leaving a notable void behind center. Defense may have to carry the Knights in 2014, and all but two starters are back from one of the country's top units last season.
Why this ranking is too high: No matter who replaces Bortles, Taysom Hill will be the much better quarterback in Orlando. More than half of UCF's 12 wins last season were by a touchdown or less, so there was a lot of playing with fire without getting burned. UCF opens the season in Dublin, Ireland v. Penn State, and will have already traveled to Missouri and Houston before facing BYU, so the Knights may be a little banged up, in addition to being battle-tested.
Why this ranking is too low: BYU makes its second east-coast trip in the first six weeks, and the Cougars' history in the state of Florida is not good: 0-5, including two bowl games in Orlando (1976 and 1985). UCF's defense is strongest (secondary) where BYU expects to be the most improved (WRs). BYU will be heading back out on the road after three straight home games. UCF has an extra couple of days of preparation time; BYU will have played the previous Friday with no Sunday practice, while the Knights are going Thursday-to-Thursday.
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1. Texas: Saturday, Sept. 6, Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
Three years ago, BYU had Texas on the ropes in Austin, taking a lead into the fourth quarter of what would eventually be a 17-16 setback. Two years later, in Provo, BYU left no doubt as to the Cougars' worthiness as a foe for the Longhorns, winning 40-21 behind a record- setting 550 rushing yards—259 from Hill alone.
All-time, BYU is 3-1 v. Texas, and the ‘Horns had no one drafted last season, and the school let Mack Brown go, and the team has issues at quarterback...so why is this the toughest game on the schedule? Well, because Charlie Strong is the new sheriff in town, and what he did at Louisville, combined with Texas talent is enough for me--and the national analysts, most of whom have the Longhorns ranked in the Top 25 to start the season. Even should Texas not return to its best historical performance levels, any win over the Longhorns makes noise. For BYU, a week-two win on the ‘Horns' home field could resonate well into October and November. It's tough to overstate how big this game is for the Cougars; if BYU is to have a "special season," this is the lynchpin contest.
Why this ranking is too high: QB David Ash is a question mark after a string of injuries last fall and this past spring. RB Johnathan Gray is coming off an Achilles' tendon injury. The offensive line is generally unproven, and in a new scheme. Most of the defense is back, but that's the same group BYU shredded last year in Provo. Those players who will be paying extra attention to Taysom Hill's run threat will now have to deal with what is expected to be an improved pass attack, creating more space for Hill to fill, when needed. Texas has been living on reputation for a while now (no double-digit win seasons since 2009), and can be had—- even in Austin.
Why this ranking is too low: N/A
