Long and short of it: BYU struggles rooted in shooting, schedule


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It has been an unusual season for Dave Rose and the BYU Cougars, who as the calendar turns to 2014, are in the midst of a four-game losing skid and off to an 0-2 start in West Coast Conference play. The four-game slide is the first of the Rose era, as is the 0-2 start to league competition.

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Numerous other downbeat "firsts" have occurred in the first two months of the season, accentuating the unfamiliar position in which Rose and the Cougars find themselves.

Before losing 105-96 at UMass on Dec. 7, BYU had never lost a Rose-era game when scoring 90 points or more. Only three games later, BYU lost another such game, 100-96 at Oregon, in overtime. BYU's Rose-era record in such games is now 49-2.

Before losing that game in Eugene, Rose-coached teams were 212-0 in games they led with a minute to play; that record is now 212-1 after the Cougars lost their late advantage at Oregon.

While the above notes are trivial, the Cougars biggest challenges right now are tactical.

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Rose entered the 2013-14 season intent on taking advantage of an NCAA rules emphasis on hand-check fouls--a focus designed to enhance freedom of player movement, allowing shooters more space on the floor and rewarding teams that choose to drive to the rim.

With a noted mid-range marksman in Tyler Haws, a slashing presence in Kyle Collinsworth, an aggressively-minded point guard in Matt Carlino and a prototypical post presence in Eric Mika, Rose had the key ingredients of an attack predicated on capitalizing in the paint and inside the three-point arc.

Through 15 games, BYU has more the most part succeeded in asserting itself in those intended ways: the Cougars outscore their opponents by an average of 12.8 points per game on two-point field goals, including a 10.9 points-per-game advantage in the paint. Furthermore, the Cougars average 7.1 more free-throw attempts per game than their opponents.

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Unfortunately for BYU, the free-throw trips are being rewarded at an unsatisfactory rate; the Cougars 67% free-throw conversion clip ranks 245th nationally. While Haws is shooting 87% from the stripe, the rest of the team has a 62% FT conversion rate.

Opponents are shooting 71% from the free-throw line, so while BYU averages 7.1 more free-throw attempts per game, the advantage in free-throw points per game is only slightly more than half that number (3.8).

Free-throw failings have been a key factor in multiple losses this season, most notably some close games in which BYU struggled from the stripe, down the stretch.

This season, BYU is 28-for-49 (57%) on free throws taken in the final 2:00 of the game, down from the 75% Rose-era standard in such games.

Of BYU's seven losses, three were decided by single digits. In each of those games, late free throws were a factor.

Against Iowa State (L 90-88), when two free throws would have tied the game with 35 seconds to play, BYU went 1-for-2 from the line.

At Oregon (L 100-96), leading by three with 1:16 to play in regulation, BYU went 1-for-2 from the line. Then, in overtime, trailing by two with 35 seconds to play, BYU went 1-for-2 from the line.

At Pepperdine (L 80-74), trailing by six with 1:29 to play, BYU went 1-for-2 from the line. Trailing by four with 49 seconds to play, BYU went 0-for-2 from the line.

Of course, free throws missed early in the game count as much as the shots missed late, and BYU's inconsistency from the stripe has been a season-long frustration, but most frustrating is that things aren't getting much better, despite the added focus on and importance of free-throw improvement.

Through the first ten games, BYU hit on 70% of FTs or better seven times, peaking at 78% v. UMass. In the five games since that game, BYU hasn't topped 69%, dipping to a season-low 55% at Utah.

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The other key missing piece in BYU's offensive attack is the three-point shot. Once a centerpiece of Dave Rose's offenses, the three-pointer is a current afterthought, relative to previous teams.

Rose-era reliance on 3PFG

Season3PFGA/game3PFG%% of 3PFGA/FGA*% of pts from 3PFG*
2005-0617.938.830.827.6
2006-0718.141.531.328.8
2007-0821.837.338.833.1
2008-0918.938.133.628.4
2009-1019.441.733.229.3
2010-1123.436.137.830.8
2011-1219.434.332.526.2
2012-1317.533.828.622.7
2013-1414.434.320.517.9

*source stats from kenpom.com, Division I games only

The recent drop in three-point dependency is dramatic--whereas almost 40% of BYU's shot attempts came from the arc in the Sweet 16 season of 2010-11, that percentage has been sliced almost in half only three seasons later.

A question becomes, is BYU not shooting many three-pointers because they shoot poorly, or do they shoot poorly because they aren't shooting many three-pointers?

Or, perhaps most logically, do the Cougars simply not have the players to make the three-point shot a more prominent part of the attack?

The top three players in BYU's all-time 3PFGM made list all played during the seasons between 2005-06 and 2010-11: Jimmer Fredette (1st, 296 3PFGM, 39% 3PFG%), Jonathan Tavernari (2nd, 265, 38%) and Jackson Emery (3rd, 230, 38%). Additionally, Mike Rose (5th, 163, 43%) and Lee Cummard (6th, 153, 43%) contributed to BYU's most prolific three-point seasons.

Of players on the current roster, none are in the top ten of the above list, with Matt Carlino (11th, 116, 32%) and Tyler Haws (20th, 84, 38%) the most productive players from distance.

Carlino (69) and Haws (42) have combine to take more than of half of BYU's 216 three-point attempts in 2013-14, but have made only 31.5% of those attempts, with Carlino's 27.5% rate the lowest among rotation regulars. He is five for his last 32 (15.6%) from distance; through 76 games, he has a career three-point rate of 32.2%.

Carlino's current slump is deep enough to wonder if a remedy is soon in coming, and his career three-point number is not overly encouraging. Haws, though, is a skilled enough shooter and has worked enough on his range that more long-distance opportunities should probably be created for him.

Haws' career three-point percentage is in line with Fredette, Tavernari and Emery, but he is averaging only 2.7 3PFGA/game, compared to the range of 4.5 to 5.5 attempts per game for those three players.

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Besides Carlino and Haws, there are three other players with at least 20 3PFGA on this year's team, but only one is shooting above 40% from distance, and that's Skyler Halford (41%), who while scoreless from the arc at Pepperdine, came off the bench to score 11 points and spark a second-half BYU comeback that fell short. If BYU's three-point fortunes are to see an up-tick, Halford will likely be a part of it.

By percentages, Nate Austin (2-for-4) and Kyle Collinsworth (5-for-12) are BYU's best three-point shooters, but they don't take enough long shots to be considered a part of any tactical long-distance renaissance. That said, I do wish Austin would shoot more--and not just from the arc. He has a nice shooting touch for a big guy.

The Cougars' three-point situation has been more acute during the current four-game losing streak, during which BYU has been outscored by 38 total points, but by 75 points from the arc.

Key stats during BYU four-game losing streak

BYUOpponent
PPG77.587.0
FG%41.442.1
2PFG%45.143.9
3PFG%26.839.2
FT%61.575.0
% of 2PFGA/FGA78.962.6
% of 3PFGA/FGA21.137.4
% of FTA/FGA45.938.1
Assists5166
Turnovers5042
Rebounds164164
Fouls8184
Points on 2PFG190150
Points on 3PFG45120
Points on FT7578

Taking into account BYU's 14 Division I games, the Cougars have yet to top 20 3PFGA in any game, while opponents have taken 21+ 3PFG in 12 of 14 games.

On the season, BYU is actually outshooting its opponents from the arc--34% to 32%--but is being outscored by almost 10 points per game from distance, averaging 4.9 threes per game, to the opponents' 8.1.

The value of a three-point make can often be as much emotional as it is empirical; three-pointers can enliven a crowd and deflate defenders. In both games over the weekend, at LMU and Pepperdine, the cumulative effect of those teams' 21 triples was palpable. LMU's early threes and Pepperdine's game-long long-distance assault seemed to kind of gut the Cougars; BYU's four three-pointers over two games had literally no competitive impact.

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Also a factor in BYU's 8-7 start is a schedule that has proven to be the toughest of the Dave Rose era, ranked in the top 25 by Ken Pomeroy and in the top ten by Jeff Sagarin.

BYU has played four nationally ranked teams, including three teams (Oregon, Iowa State and Wichita State) that remain undefeated. BYU defeated respected Stanford, Texas and Utah State early in the season, but have not beaten a team in the Pomeroy top 200 since that win over the Aggies on Nov. 30.

Compounding the Cougars' schedule challenge has been the fact that BYU has played only two home games since falling to Iowa State at the Marriott Center on Nov. 26. When BYU returns to the home hardwoods this Saturday versus San Diego, the Cougars will have played only two home games over a 45-day stretch. Combined with the difficulty of opponents faced while going 1-5 in the last six games, BYU's confidence has taken a considerable hit.

Early in the season, BYU was playing nationally ranked teams tight but just falling short. The belief was that the Cougars were close to getting over the hump. The 81-64 loss at Utah was a wake-up call of sorts, but the following week's effort at unbeaten Oregon seemed to indicate the call was heeded.

For 37 minutes in Eugene, BYU controlled the game and appeared on the verge of a signature win. Instead, the Cougars lost a a seven-point lead down the stretch and then lost the game in overtime. It was the most crushing setback of the season, yet the Cougars weren't out of the woods yet; they had two more road games to play, to open the WCC season.

Having never lost at either LMU or Pepperdine since joining the WCC, BYU went on to drop both games over the weekend, bringing the Cougars to their current point--the low point of the Dave Rose era.

It was a rough start to the conference campaign, but the non-conference heartbreaks almost certainly played a part in how the weekend went down. This team simply hasn't won in a while, and remembering what it takes to beat good teams requires going back a little too far in the memory banks right now.

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I am sure that many wonder why I haven't addressed team defense as a reason for the Cougars' current struggles. BYU is allowing a Rose-era high 80.3 points per game, but the Cougars are also scoring a Rose-era high 87.3 points per game, so the pace of play (BYU leads the nation in tempo and shortest average offensive possession length) and BYU's offensive productivity has served to mitigate many defensive shortcomings.

It is true that BYU's lack of depth (only ten scholarship players) has impacted Rose's man-to-man/zone preferences and becomes a significant factor when Eric Mika and Nate Austin find themselves in foul trouble--which is often.

Austin is averaging 5.5 personal fouls/40 minutes, while Mika averages 5.0 fouls/40, and the two have combined for six disqualifications--five of them coming in the last three games alone.

All that said, most of BYU's defensive numbers are directly right in line with Rose's previous seasons.

BYU Defensive Performance, Rose era

SeasonFG%3PFG%FT%Points per game
2005-0645366971.7
2006-0743346969.0
2007-0839307163.2
2008-0941307065.2
2009-1041336866.4
2010-1142336967.9
2011-1241316767.4
2012-1342336869.5
2013-1441327180.3

Again, it seems to come down to the three-point line--and now, we're talking about BYU's perimeter defense. As BYU has become less-reliant on the three-point shot, the Cougars' opponents have become more reliant, and more successful on the scoreboard and in the win/loss column, despite percentages that aren't much different from those in previous seasons.

It's a volume proposition, and while BYU has become more hesitant to shoot from deep, opponents are now bombing away, and winning games as a result. The recent trends are clearly observed, and when compared to the earlier corresponding chart (re: BYU's 3PFG reliance), show how the tables have turned on BYU over the last three seasons.

Rose-era opponents' reliance on 3PFG

Season3PFGA/game3PFG%% of 3PFGA/FGA*% of pts from 3PFG*
2005-0617.035.830.225.4
2006-0717.133.830.325.4
2007-0817.430.029.924.8
2008-0919.230.134.426.5
2009-1018.433.332.327.8
2010-1118.032.730.526.2
2011-1221.031.236.028.9
2012-1320.233.235.028.8
2013-1425.432.037.029.6

*source stats from kenpom.com, Division I games only

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There is also an interesting phenomenon to which BYU has fallen victim this season, and it's that of the "hot hand." In more than half of BYU's games, the opponent's leading scorer in that game has set a new career scoring high against the Cougars. This seems to me like an unusually high number, and perhaps a bit of a hard-luck element working against BYU.

Opposing players with the "hot hand" against BYU

Game ResultTeamPlayerPoints v. BYUPrevious career high
WinWeber StateKyle Tresnak2423
WinStanfordChasson Randle3330
WinColorado MesaLandon Vermeer2320
LossWichita StateRon Baker2321
LossUMassChaz Williams3229
LossOregonJason Calliste3127
LossLMUEvan Payne2724
LossPepperdineMalcolm Brooks2420

BYU was able to offset the first few big nights, but the last five games in which an opponent has gone off, the Cougars have lost.

The absence of a "lock-down defender," a la Jackson Emery can be considered a factor, as can BYU's increased reliance on zone defense, which also contributes to the defensive three-point numbers. Of the eight players noted above, all but one are guards/wings who excelled as three-point shooters and/or penetrators against BYU.

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Identifying some of the issues facing BYU near the midway point of its season is not to abandon hope for this year's team. There are 16 more conference games to play, nine of them in Provo, followed by a conference tournament that could be the most wide-open the WCC has ever seen. The league's top-to-bottom talent level has increased, as evidenced by LMU and Pepperdine's wins over the weekend. The conference title chase is off to an intriguing, if unexpected start.

BYU has the league's leading scorer and a player on pace to end up as the school's career points leader, in Tyler Haws. It has a versatile playmaker in Kyle Collinsworth, currently averaging 13 points, while leading the team with 8 rebounds and 5 assists per game. While slumping, Matt Carlino has mastered big moments in the past. Nate Austin personifies hustle and also averages eight rebounds per game, while leading BYU in blocked shots. When on the floor, Eric Mika shows his promise in the post; his challenge will be avoiding foul trouble.

BYU's bench isn't incredibly deep, but Halford has already begun to emerge, and averages 21.3 points per 40 minutes--a number second only to Haws and Mika. Freshman Frank Bartley is slumping with his shot, but his skills as an energetic defender and confident driver have helped the Cougars. Junior Anson Winder is shooting a good number this season, as is fellow junior Josh Sharp, in limited minutes. Freshman Luke Worthington is learning on the fly.

Rose and his program are being challenged as never before. Recent changes to LDS mission-eligibility protocol and unforeseen personnel situations have placed BYU in a bit of a difficult spot from which it may take a season or two to fully emerge, but once the personnel situation stabilizes, the Cougars' future is incredibly bright, with nationally-ranked recruits stocking BYU's player pipeline.

Meantime, the current pieces remain in place to recover from the current slide and make a run into conference title and postseason contention.

BYU has already been good enough to beat some very good teams, and good enough to threaten some great ones. There is time to right the ship, and with Rose at the helm, the right hands are on the wheel. His teams have never won fewer than 20 games in a season, and his expectations will remain high.

The comeback trail starts Saturday at home against San Diego, a team that took two games from BYU last season. Those memories, and the Cougars' current plight, should combine to serve as more than enough motivation to stop the skid and get the new year off in a winning way.

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Greg Wrubell

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