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The assigned task was simple enough: determine three "swing games" on BYU's 2013 schedule. The question then becomes: what constitutes a "swing game"?
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Determining a definition may be a subjective process, but my approach was to single out three games that, by virtue of their calendar placement, projected difficulty and any associated subtext, serve as distinct mileposts by which the Cougars can be most fairly measured.
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#swinggames
The season-opener at rebuilding Virginia is an indisputably important game, but it is a game BYU will be expected to win, even while playing two time zones away. While a loss in Charlottesville would be damaging, a win would simply set up the following week's home game with Texas-—another very important contest, but another game I am declining to designate as a "swing" game.
Beating Texas would be huge, and could signal that a special season is in the offing; conversely, a loss to Texas ostensibly would not even take BYU out of the BCS mix, as long as the Longhorns and Cougars excelled the rest of the way, and no undefeated non-BCS teams were to eventually emerge and survive the season unscathed.
So, while Texas could easily be picked as a "swing game," the fact it immediately precedes the Utah game forced me to pick one or the other, in the sake of arbitrary calendar balance--which brings us to my first "swing game":
1) Home v. Utah on September 21st
BYU's last win over Utah came in 2009, and if the Cougars can't beat the Utes at home in 2013, they won't get another crack at their in-state rivals until 2016 at the earliest. Seven-year itch, indeed.
A fourth straight loss to Utah would be BYU's second such losing skid since 2001, and would give the Utes nine wins in the last 12 meetings, as well as six wins in nine games against the Bronco Mendenhall-era Cougars.
Two of BYU's last three losses to the Utes were by a combined total of four points, and of the last 16 meetings, 13 have been decided by a touchdown or less, so it's not as if the Utes are simply manhandling BYU year in and year out.
The fact remains, however, that of those 16 games, Utah has won 10, and a fourth consecutive victory before the rivalry's two-year hiatus would carry even more resonance.
BYU needs this win.
To get this win, the Cougars have to play sound football, which has rarely happened in the Mendenhall-era meetings with Utah. BYU is 42-3 under Mendenhall when holding the edge in turnover margin, but in eight games against Utah, BYU has recorded a positive turnover margin only once (a 26-23 overtime win in 2009).
BYU has historically established three weekly statistical goals, or "pillars," relating to points scored and allowed, rushing yards gained and allowed, and turnover margin. In the eight Mendenhall-era meetings with Utah, BYU has achieved all three goals only once (win in 2009), has met one of the goals once (loss in 2012), but has gone 0-for-3 six times in eight games.
There are different ways to win a game, but it's clear that the Cougars have seen consistent fundamental program-metric breakdowns in their biggest annual contest.
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The Utah game is the middle game of an early three-game homestand, with Middle Tennessee following the Utes to Provo. Games at Utah State, home to Georgia Tech and at Houston will follow, and while all three will be challenging and pose specific potential pitfalls, my next swing game is the final game of October:
2) Home v. Boise State on October 25th
Boise State is not only a nationally-renowned college football powerhouse, it has quietly turned itself into a BYU nemesis, winning all three meetings-—in 2003, 2004 and 2012. While the last two wins were nail-biters, both were particularly galling.
In 2004 at Bronco Stadium, BYU rallied from an early 16-0 deficit to take a 27-22 fourth-quarter lead, fell behind again, then put together a would-be game-winning drive, only to miss a short, last-minute field goal.
Last year in Boise, the BYU defense dominated, but injured and ineffective QB Riley Nelson struggled through four turnovers and a -4.49 passer rating, before backup Taysom Hill entered the game and engineered the Cougars' only touchdown in the closing moments. A two-point conversion attempt failed, and BYU lost 7-6.
A perennial candidate to bust the BCS, the Broncos remained in the mix as a one-loss team in 2012, before a second setback (home to San Diego State) knocked them out of the conversation. In the final year of the BCS, the best of the non-auto qualifiers will be up for consideration as long as they remain undefeated, or should the numbers break right, as long as they can remain highly-ranked with no more than a single setback.
BYU's meeting with Boise State could conceivably result in one or other being eliminated from BCS consideration, should either team be rolling on October 25th. At the very least, the game affords BYU the chance to finally break through against Boise State—one of only four teams BYU has faced at least three times without a win (BYU is 0-3 v. Boise State and Ohio State; 0-4 against Florida State and Iowa State).
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I strongly considered making the post-bye week game at Wisconsin on November 9th my third "swing game," but with it following immediately on the heels of the Boise State contest, I wanted a little more space between selections, so I ended up in South Bend for my final pick:
3) At Notre Dame on November 23rd
A participant in last season's BCS Championship game, Notre Dame was pretty much played to a standstill by BYU last October. Leading the Irish at the half and again after three quarters, BYU allowed one too many big run plays late and misfired on a would-be fourth-quarter touchdown pass that might have given the Cougars the win.
The chinks in the Notre Dame armor were exposed by BYU, but the Irish managed to keep surviving, until Alabama dismantled the 'Domers' in the national title game.
This season, the Notre Dame game is placed on the schedule about a month later than last year's meeting. It will be colder, and more wintry than autumnal, with potentially more on the line for BYU. Should the Cougars arrive at Notre Dame under the national microscope, the game in South Bend could affix a pigskin imprimatur.
Losing both Everett Golson and Gunner Kiel will leave the 2013 Irish notably thinner than they expected to be at QB; Tommy Rees has experience, and did just enough to help beat BYU last season, but the Notre Dame offense was the weak link on last year's team and threatens to be its stumbling block this season.
The Irish defense could very well be improved (especially up front with Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III), even without linebacker Manti Te'o, but BYU's offense should certainly be better equipped to keep if not set the pace on that side of the ball.
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One "'swing game" in September, one in October and a third in November--three chances to see just where the Cougars really are at those stages of the season.
The performance in the first game should hint at BYU's chances in the second, just as the performance in the second should give us a feel for the third. Before and after each of the games are tough teams, trap games and road testers. In the era of independence and with the schedule strength AD Tom Holmoe is seeking, there are few places to catch a breath.
Time will tell if the 2013 slate turns out to be the most difficult in BYU football history, but the big games are plentiful. Not every big game is a "swing game," but every swing game is certainly a big one; I'm excited to see how the schedule plays out, with BYU swinging into Charlottesville to start the season in less than two months.
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Photo: Courtesy BYU Photo
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