Diminishing returns precede return of Anae


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A recent "Camp Cougar Countdown ‘Fact of the Day'" sent out on my Twitter feed (@gregwrubell) noted that the 2012 BYU Cougars recorded 1,003 offensive plays-—a high-water mark for the Bronco Mendenhall era, and one of the rare thousand-play seasons in BYU Football history.

Yet despite the highest number of snaps in Mendenhall's eight-season tenure, 2012 also resulted in the second-lowest scoring campaign since Mednenhall's run as head coach began in 2005.

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BYU's minimal return on its play-calling investment was in part the reason for an overhaul of the Cougars' offensive coaching staff, and impetus for the return of Robert Anae--the coordinator who led BYU to significantly more productive efforts in his first go-round as OC from 2005 through 2010.

The first five of those six seasons remain the five most prolific of the Mendenhall era, while the last three campaigns (2010 under Anae and 2011-12 under Brandon Doman) represent the three worst offensive seasons under Mendenhall.

In 2013, BYU is out to reverse a slide that has seen BYU go from an average of 33.9 points per game from 2005 through 2009, to a 28.3 ppg average from 2010 through 2012. BYU's average win total dropped accordingly, from 9.8 wins/season from 2005 through 2009 (11 wins three times and 10 wins once), to 8.3 wins/season from 2010 through 2012.

By those and other notable metrics, BYU has clearly slipped in its offensive efficiency, with the 2012 season underscoring how relatively little payback the Cougars' offense has been getting for its time spent on the field.

Offensive Statistics, Mendehall Era (eight-season ranks in parentheses)

YearOff. Coord.GmsTeam RecordPlaysPlays/gmYdsYPGYds/playPtsPPGPlays/PtTDTD/gmPlays/TDRed Zone TD%
2005Anae126-6934<b>77.8 (1)</b>5,549462.4 (2)5.94 (4)39633.0 (4)2.36 (4)514.25 (4)18.31 (4)70.6% (5)
2006Anae1311-288968.4 (7)6,051<b>465.5 (1)</b><b>6.81 (1)</b>478<b>36.8 (1)</b><b>1.86 (1)</b>63<b>4.85 (1)</b><b>14.11 (1)</b>71.7% (2)
2007Anae1311-299676.6 (3)5,756442.8 (4)5.78 (5)39130.1 (5)2.54 (6)524.00 (5)19.15 (5)71.2% (3)
2008Anae1310-391770.5 (6)5,782444.8 (3)6.31 (2)44534.2 (3)2.06 (3)594.54 (3)15.54 (3)70.8% (4)
2009Anae1311-288968.4 (7)5,553427.2 (5)6.25 (3)46135.5 (2)1.92 (2)624.77 (2)14.33 (2)<b>77.1% (1)</b>
2010Anae137-694672.8(5)4,764366.5 (8)5.04 (8)34026.2 (8)2.78 (8)413.15 (8)23.07 (8)62.0% (7)
2011Doman1310-395873.7 (4)5,274405.7 (6)5.51 (6)39130.1 (5)2.45 (5)493.77 (7)19.55 (6)61.1% (8)
2012Doman138-51,00377.2 (2)5,205400.4 (7)5.19 (7)37328.7 (7)2.68 (7)503.85 (6)20.06 (7)62.5% (6)

Anae's first season featured the Mendenhall era's most plays per game and second-most yards per game, but only middle-of-the-road results in scoring and efficiency. Likewise, the last three seasons were the three lowest-scoring seasons of the Mendenhall era, but were also were three of the top five seasons in plays per game. These numbers symbolize the "spinning wheels" of a struggling offense. Lots of plays are being run, but yards are picked up in smaller chunks, and trips into the end zone are less frequent--particularly from inside the red zone.

BYU's three highest-scoring seasons in the Mendenhall era were also the three seasons with the lowest plays-per-game number. In those seasons, under Anae, quality of possessions trumped quantity of snaps.

If Anae and his new offense can combine the kind of efficiency displayed in his first five seasons with the kind of up-tempo play volume he anticipates in 2013, then BYU's attack will find itself among the nation's most productive and prolific.

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The travails that made Anae's swan-song season of 2010 the worst offensive campaign in the Mendenhall era are unlikely to plague BYU in 2013, primarily because there is no question what the Cougars plan to do at quarterback. In 2010, the decision was made to platoon a true freshman gunslinger in Jake Heaps and change-of-pace scrambler in Riley Nelson. The plan had already begun to backfire when Nelson's season-ending injury threw Heaps into the fire without the requisite practice reps that would traditionally have gone to a starting QB--in March and/or August of that year.

This time around, although he has not formally been named as such, Taysom Hill is the clear-cut starter, and despite the fact he has only six games and two starts under his belt, he produced respectable numbers in limited time last season, and the sophomore shows great promise for the future. It is true that his own season-ending injury took some of the luster off his freshman season's shine, but all signs indicate Hill will be full-go come fall camp.

The offensive line situation merits concern in 2013, considering the number of newcomers who will be expected to either start or shore up a unit that struggled last season. In 2010, interestingly, the O-line was viewed as a preseason strength, with three full-time starters and one part-time starter returning up front.

In the end, that season's QB rotation and Heaps' inexperience helped create a perfect storm of offensive inefficiency that ultimately resulted in the a major shuffling of coaching personnel on that side of the ball, highlighted by Anae's decision to depart for the University of Arizona.

Two seasons later, another change of the coaching guard has brought back the coordinator who saw BYU's offense slide into somewhat of a statistical abyss. It will now and again be Robert Anae's job to bring the Cougars back to the surface, and he brings with him an oft-repeated mantra. To borrow the key words from his signature catch phrase, his task will be hard; just how fast he accomplishes his goals will in large measure determine if BYU can turn 2013's special schedule into a special season.

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Photo: Scott G. Winterton, Deseret News

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Greg Wrubell

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