What Jazz are thinking going into Thursday's NBA draft


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SALT LAKE CITY — With the NBA draft less than 24 hours away, here's an update on a few things the Jazz are thinking about in the boardroom as they make the decision on what to do with the No. 12 pick.

Jazz will find it hard to trade up

There have been articles published saying the Jazz could use Derrick Favors to trade up in this draft, knowing that going after Paul Millsap would be easier without Favors on the roster.

Ignore them. The Jazz love Favors and his extremely team-friendly contract, and want to continue the on-court chemistry displayed at the end of last season, when the team was on a 50-win pace. Additionally, they know that even if Favors were off the roster, Millsap wouldn't be likely to sign in Utah: after all, why would Millsap leave contending Atlanta, who will pay great amounts of money to keep him, to go to Utah, where Millsap's already been? Yes, Utah will make the call on Day 1 of the NBA's free agency to Millsap's representation to register their interest, but they certainly wouldn't make a trade involving Favors for Millsap's sake.

Now, could the Jazz move up in this year's draft? Yes. They'd love to package No. 12 with OKC's first acquired in the Kanter trade, and/or the Golden State Warriors' 2017 first, and/or any number of the insane number of second-round picks they have over the next few years. But we should be honest: that sort of package isn't likely to move them into the top five of this draft, unless the Knicks go insane.

Trades down or out

Utah's also open to trading down or out of this year's draft if they get the sort of player that is better than what's available at No, 12, while still having a team-friendly contract for at least two seasons. Two names to look at are Patrick Patterson and Kelly Olynyk. The Jazz might set up those sorts of trades ahead of time, then only pull the trigger if the players they really want at #12 don't fall. Remember, they only have 5 minutes to make their pick, so it pays to be prepared for any contingency.

The Jazz probably won't draft a point guard at No. 12

It's no secret that Trey Burke struggled last season, making no gains over his rookie year and shooting less than 37 percent from the field. The easiest way to upgrade the team might be to acquire a point guard who approaches league-average on offense. But the Jazz love Dante Exum because of his current defensive ability and future potential, leaving Burke the possible odd man out.

But the team also knows that the point guards slated around No. 12, say, Cameron Payne or Jerian Grant, aren't likely to outperform Burke in their rookie year. They also know that if a point guard were selected, Burke's trade value, tenuous as it is, would crater. So they'd have to move Burke in a trade before drafting a point guard around No. 12, and get something back, and be sure that the point guard selected was a significantly better prospect than the other options by such a margin to justify the initial trade. In other words, it's not likely.

Quin Snyder as a developmental genius, especially on defense

After last year's draft, I was somewhat confused. After all, the Jazz had just finished worst in the league in defensive rating, and then selected two prospects with weak defensive pedigrees. Dante Exum was a mess on that end in high school, taking whole possessions off, and Coach K often subbed Rodney Hood for defense at Duke. But then, Quin Snyder and his staff somehow melded Exum and Hood into good defensive rookies, a true rarity in the NBA.

The thinking is that Snyder may also be able to work that same magic on defensively weak prospects in this draft. R.J. Hunter is maybe the best example here: Hunter was a poor defender in a zone-based system last year, he clearly has miles to go defensively. But if the Jazz feel confident in his offensive game, they also will feel confident in Snyder's ability to turn him into at least an adequate defender.

Quick player thoughts:

  • The Jazz do like Trey Lyles, especially his basketball IQ and size. The point above with Snyder's defensive development applies here, and they think he'd fit in well in his "play with the pass" system.
  • Frank Kaminsky isn't likely to fall to No. 12, especially given Charlotte's trade with Portland. But if he did, the Jazz worry about Kaminsky's age in two ways: first, they feel it limits his upside compared to some of the younger players in the draft. Secondly, given the load he took on at Wisconsin, Kaminsky's legs have more miles on them, which may shorten his NBA career.
  • The Jazz like Kristaps Porzingis, with some having him as a top three player in the draft, but know they're unlikely to get him.
  • Bobby Portis isn't likely to be the pick unless the Jazz trade down. They feel confident that he'll have a long NBA career due to his hustle, but won't be much more than a bench player.
  • Kevon Looney isn't likely to be the pick, period.
  • The Jazz do like Myles Turner, and have fewer questions about him than nearly any other prospect, due to his tie with ASM Sports, and the fact they've interviewed him three times now: once at the Combine, once at the ASM Sports Vegas workout, and once when he came to Utah for a workout. The worry with Turner is whether or not his upside is as high as some said it was coming out of high school, along with some positional worries about where he fits in today's NBA.
  • Mario Hezonja's likely to go in the top eight of this year's draft: he's just too talented not to, despite the personality concerns that he thinks he's the next coming of Kobe Bryant. But if he does fall, here's one thing to look at: his contract amount. In the NBA, the rookie contract amounts are set by the collective bargaining agreement, plus or minus 20 percent. A player taken at No. 10 overall is slated to make $2.068 million next season. That amount is likely less than Hezonja could make as a free agent among Europe's clubs, who aren't subject to the rookie scale limit. So if Hezonja's No. 1 goal was to make money, and if he falls to the Jazz's spot, he might choose to stay overseas for three seasons in order to negotiate with teams as a free agent, and presumably successful European player, in his prime. That might be enough to convince teams to pass on him.

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Andy Larsen

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