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Tomorrow night, the BYU Cougar hoopsters visit Utah State for the first time since 2005, and hopes are they'll be at full strength. But after a practice injury to Jackson Emery on Monday, there's some question whether the guy we call the "Pain Magnet" will be in the lineup.
The official diagnosis is that Emery has a mid-foot sprain, and will be a game-time decision, according to BYU's trainer. The injury occurred as Emery was closing out to a baseline shooter, when he stumbled awkwardly. BYU is practicing on the multi-use Richards Building gym floors, as the Marriott Center is occupied with "Christmas Around the World" preparations and presentations.
BYU coaches are hoping Emery will be available for the Utah State game, and for good reason. He has been one of BYU's most important players this season; second in scoring, while leading in three-point percentage and steals. Last year against Utah State, Emery had nine points, six rebounds, three assists and five steals.
Emery earned the above nickname thanks to his fearless play and propensity to pick up bumps and bruises--playing through every injury. Chances are, he'll give it a go Wednesday night; that's just the way he is. If he cannot go in Logan, look for BYU to replace him in the starting "two" spot with Mike Loyd, who is off to a strong start the season (6.6 ppg, 71% fg, 70% 3pfg). With BYU's depth and versatility, there are other lineup options, but the Loyd scenario would be the most likely if Emery is unavailable.
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Emery is one of only two players who have played at Spectrum during their BYU careers. As a freshman, Chris Miles was on the BYU team that lost in Logan in 2004; Emery was a freshman on the BYU team that lost to the Aggies in 2005 (Miles was then on his LDS mission).
Wednesday's game in Logan will mark the fourth time in the last seven meetings that BYU-USU has been played in the Spectrum, with two meetings at the Marriott Center, and one game at Energy Solutions Arena (last year). Next year's get-together is scheduled for the Marriott Center, concluding the current contract.
An Aggie fan named Kris Kofoed e-mailed me to note that if you go back to the year 2002 and project forward through 2010, the series once again evens out, with four games at each home venue, plus one neutral court affair:
2002 - Provo
2003 - Logan
2004 - Logan
2004 - Provo
2005 - Logan
2006 - Provo
2008 - Salt Lake
2009 - Logan
2010 - Provo
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BYU's last win at the Spectrum came in 2000, behind 35 points from Terrell Lyday. Not only was that the Cougars' last win at Utah State, it remains the only instate home game Stew Morrill has lost since taking over as head coach in 1998. Following an 89-49 home win over Southern Utah last Saturday, Morrill is now 20-1 in the Spectrum versus teams from the state of Utah.
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Streaks of note:
BYU has lost four in a row at the Spectrum.
Utah State has won 18 in a row versus instate foes at the Spectrum.
Utah State has won 36 in a row overall at the Spectrum.
Utah State has won 40 in row versus non-conference foes at the Spectrum.
Utah State has won 64 in a row versus regular season non-conference foes at the Spectrum (last loss: 82-73 to BYU on Jan. 18, 2000).
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I may post PAP updates every few games or so during the season (you can see an explanation of PAP numbers in this blog entry).
As such, here's the BYU update through game five (listing only players averaging 10+ minutes per game)--
1. Brandon Davies: .725
2. Noah Hartsock: .700
3. Mike Loyd: .688
4. Chris Miles: .625
5. Jackson Emery: .574
6. Lamont Morgan: .571
7. Jimmer Fredette: .567
8. Charles Abouo: .476
9. Tyler Haws: .427
10. Jonathan Tavernari: .373
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You will note that the starters tend to have lower ratings, while reserves tend to have inflated ratings (more floor time = more opportunity for success AND failure). Plus, any rating that has Jimmer Fredette seventh (!) needs some tweaking.
So, lets adjust the PAP for time spent on the floor, by multiplying PAP x (mp/total minutes available) for each player. Here are the time-adjusted PAP rankings:
1. Jimmer Fredette: .422
2. Jackson Emery: .344
3. Noah Hartsock: .333
4. Mike Loyd: .286
5. Tyler Haws: .243
6. Jonathan Tavernari: .242
7. Brandon Davies: .228
8. Chris Miles: .206
9. Charles Abouo: .171
10. Lamont Morgan: .151
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I think time-adjusted PAP gives a better overall representation of a player's current relative offensive impact to the team, while PAP alone lets you know who is best maximizing his minutes on the floor, production-wise.
Again, PAP numbers are not a measure of a player's overall impact, but they do generally let you know if the right people are taking the right shots--or not enough, or too many, etc.
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Stats guru Jerry Palm has the Mountain West Conference as the nations' sixth-rated RPI Conference, trailing the Big East, Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Atlantic 10.
Mountain West Conference RPI (Jerry Palm from collegerpi.com)
UNLV 5
UNM 31
BYU 81
AFA 83
SDSU 120
Utah 159
CSU 183
TCU 197
Wyoming 318
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The Mountain West Conference unveils its postseason football awards this afternoon.
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