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SALT LAKE CITY — In front of a stadium-record crowd, Utah nearly pulled off the upset over undefeated rival BYU Saturday night.
Leading 21-19 in the final two minutes, Utah forced a "four-and-out" and appeared to have sealed the win after stopping BYU's fourth down attempt with a sack (and near-safety). But a flag flew in after the play — a defensive holding near the sideline — that extended the drive.
BYU then scaled the length of the field to hit a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
After the game, Utah athletic director Mark Harlan took the microphone and claimed "this game was absolutely stolen from us" and that the referees had a "disgusting performance." He was reprimanded and fined by the Big 12 and issued a subsequent apology.
Maybe the flag was debatable, but Utah held a 21-10 lead at halftime with every opportunity to seal the win in the second half. Instead, they were shutout on all six possessions after the break — 59 total yards, five punts, and a pick — and lost 22-21.
The controversial ending adds even more fuel to this passionate, bitter in-state rivalry, one that I feel is the most underrated in America. The loss drops Utah to 4-5 overall (1-5 Big 12), and the five-game losing streak is the program's worst since 2013.
This marks the first time in the Kyle Whittingham era that they have lost three straight at home. Saturday, they get another opportunity to notch a ranked win as they travel to No. 17 Colorado (10 a.m. MST, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Colorado 24.3 (69th)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Colorado 37.5 (55th)
2024 season: Utah 47.7 (45th) | Colorado 66.0 (18th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Colorado to finish 11th out of 16. Utah has vastly under-performed against those expectations.
As for Colorado, they received the most media attention of any program in America due to head coach Deion Sanders, his star quarterback son, Shedeur, their two-way star Travis Hunter, and their extreme transfer portal strategy.
They started with a decisive 28-10 defeat at Nebraska, and the media hype cooled off. But quietly they have played strong football since, with a 7-2 record overall, and a ranking in the current College Football Playoff rankings, and the No. 18 spot in my Game Grader.
Colorado with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Colorado offense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (3rd Passing, 16th Rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 8th rushing)
Colorado passes on 57% of its offensive snaps, which may not seem high at face value but is actually the fourth most pass-heavy play-calling in Power Four. It is high quantity and high quality, as Sanders leads the entire Big 12 in completion percentage (73%), passing touchdowns (24), and the all-encompassing QB rating.
Their trio of wide receiver weapons is one the best in the nation, with Heisman candidate Hunter leading the way with 856 yards and a Big 12-best nine touchdowns.
Offensive line play was the limiting factor in the 2023 transition year, and that problem has continued into 2024. Colorado has allowed 29 sacks, which is one reason their opponent-adjusted rushing number is dead last in the conference. In addition to pass protection issues, the run blocking remains a weakness, as they are 110th in my OL run push metric.
This line is one of just three that ranks in the bottom 25 of both line stats.
In spite of their offensive line, and their low per-play stats, as a whole this offense is dynamic, explosive, and has star power to score in bunches. This unit faces its toughest test this season as Utah is the highest-ranked pass defense, and overall defense, on their schedule so far.
Utah's pass rush should feast on the struggling Colorado line, but keeping Sanders, Hunter, Horn and company bottled up for sixty minutes is a tall task.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16th passing, 15th rushing)
Colorado defense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 4th rushing)
No one could have predicted this. With a star-packed roster and conference title aspirations, instead Utah's offense fell to dead last in the Big 12 and saw an October coordinator change.
Last week, they started their third quarterback Brandon Rose and posted 21 points in the first half. After the break they were completely suffocated; and even worse, they lost Rose, star tight end Brant Kuithe, and receiver Money Parks to injuries (his came a week prior).
Rose became the third quarterback knocked out in 2024, and Kuithe suffered his third season-ending injury. Injuries plagued this program in 2023, and that pattern continued on offense here in 2024.
Utah will turn back to true freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson, and workhorse runner Micah Bernard will get a heavy load of carries as the Utes attempt to slow the game with ball control. Their offensive weaknesses play right into Colorado's defensive strengths.
The Colorado defense was one of the worst in all of Power Four last year, but this offseason Sanders attacked the transfer portal and upgraded their defensive line and pass rush (No. 25 in negative play rate). This is arguably the most improved defense in America and are currently ranked No. 18 in Power Four in my opponent-adjusted per-play metric.
Game prediction
Utah dominated this Pac-12 series, going 11-2 and winning the last seven matchups by an average margin of 22 points per game. Their first time together in the Big 12 has a different feel to it, with both teams in different roles than they are used to: Colorado now has league title aspirations behind a tough defense and star power, while Utah is simply trying to get back to bowl season.
There are two strong defenses, but one team has NFL talent at quarterback, while the other has injuries and a limited playbook.
Colorado 27 | Utah 17
