Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
- More than 4 in 10 Utahns believe violence against the government can be justified.
- The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll shows a rise in justification since 2022.
- Concerns about political violence are high, with 85% of Utah voters worried.
SALT LAKE CITY — Amid the assassination attempts, political bullying and hateful rhetoric that have marked the 2024 election, more than 4 in 10 Utahns say violence against the government can be justified.
At the same time, a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll also found an overwhelming majority of voters in the Beehive State worry about political violence.
Respondents were asked, "Do you think violence against the government can be justified or is never justified?" The poll of 813 registered Utah voters found 43% think violence can be justified, while 57% believe it can never be justified. The percentage of those who say it can be justified jumped significantly compared to a 2022 Utah poll.
Among those in the new survey who self-identify as Republicans, 46% say it can be justified, compared to 38% of self-identified Democrats. The numbers flip-flopped among respondents who are registered in the two parties, with 52% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans saying violence against the government can be justified. The poll found 41% of independent voters say it can be justified.
Of those who say they're likely to vote for former President Donald Trump, 51% say violence against the government can be justified, compared to 38% who say they're likely to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
"The findings suggest that perspectives on political violence are deeply influenced by identity and ideology," said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics. "Since 2020, our nation has seen unprecedented demonstrations, both peaceful and violent. In Utah, escalating political rhetoric and narrow electoral margins have shifted perceptions on political violence across the political spectrum."
The poll also shows 85% of Utah voters are concerned about political violence — 43% very concerned and 42% somewhat concerned. Self-identified Democrats were more concerned than self-identified Republicans and independents in the survey. Self-identified Democrats expressed more concern than self-identified Republicans at 94% compared to 82%.
Younger people were more likely to say violence against the government can be justified than older people. The survey found 62% of those age 18-34 see justification for it, while in all other groups it's less than half. More men than women say violence can be justified, 51% to 36%. Among members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, 35% say violence against the government can be justified, while 65% say it can never be justified.
HarrisX Interactive conducted the poll Oct. 15-19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. You can see full poll results here.
The percentage of Utah voters who think violence against the government can be justified jumped dramatically since the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute asked the same question in a poll in February 2022, a year after a violent mob attacked the U.S. Capitol as Congress attempted to certify the 2020 presidential election.
In that survey, 23% said violence can be justified, while 62% said it cannot and 15% had no opinion.
Those results were more in line with nationwide NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released in April that found 20% believe that "Americans may have to resort to violence in order get the nation back on track." Broken down by party, 28% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats see violence as an option as do 18% of independents.
Acts of political violence
The most notable violence during the 2024 campaign were two assassination attempts on Trump. Other high-profile incidents include three shootings in recent weeks at a Democratic campaign office for Harris in Arizona, Reuters reported.
"But Reuters documented scores of other cases on contentious political issues — from election disputes to LGBTQ+ rights and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Incidents ranged from small fights over political signs to more violent brawls and property destruction at rallies. Most of this year's violence wasn't fatal with the exception of two deaths: a spectator killed during July's attempt on Trump's life and the shooter," per the news outlet.
Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who studies political violence, expressed concern over the prospect of post-election violence in battleground states, where the margin of victory could be slim. He likened it to "a wildfire season" with lots of "dry combustible material" and the "potential for lightning strikes," according to Reuters.
Deseret News columnist Jay Evensen posed this question in a piece last week: Are we expecting a general election next month, or a war?
He noted poll workers in Arizona are undergoing active-shooter drills and lessons in how to barricade themselves. They're equipped with trauma kits, including tourniquets and materials for packing chest wounds and treating serious bleeding.
And it's not just in key swing states like Arizona that threats have occurred.
In Utah, a solidly red state where Trump's victory in 2020 was never in doubt, and where polls show he likely will win again this year, the FBI intercepted a letter recently meant for Republican Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson — who oversees state elections — that contained a white powder. It also contained a letter signed by the "United States Traitor Elimination Army."
Taking precautions, defusing tensions
The U.S. Attorney in Utah, Trina Higgins, appointed an election officer to oversee the handling of election day complaints of voting rights concerns, threats of violence to election officials or staff and election fraud, in consultation with the Justice Department in Washington, D.C.
"Every citizen must be able to vote without interference or discrimination and to have that vote counted in a fair and free election," Higgins said in a statement. "Similarly, election officials and staff must be able to serve without being subject to unlawful threats of violence."
Many researchers and conflict mitigation practitioners are concerned that the possibility of political violence in the coming weeks and months may be more certain than it has in any recent election, according to NPR.
"Every single number is elevated, from hate crimes, political homicides, people driving into protesters, you name it," Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the public broadcasting organization. "If it's a kind of political violence, it's been going up since 2015."
NPR spoke to more than a dozen people who, like Kleinfeld, are involved in efforts outside government and law enforcement aimed at de-escalating polarization campaigns that might otherwise turn violent. "While concern remains high, many say violence is not inevitable and that ordinary people can play an important part of defusing tensions," per NPR.
