Another 'beneficial' storm heads to Utah after drought intensity picked up in October

SALT LAKE CITY — October was a scorcher by fall standards.

Multiple cities posted record or above-normal average temperatures and below-normal precipitation, leading Utah's drought intensity to increase heading into November. However, Utah is in line to receive another round of relief this weekend through a low-pressure system currently over the Pacific Northwest.

A cold front ahead of the storm is set to arrive in Utah sometime in the late morning or early afternoon on Saturday, bringing a round of showers with it, said KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson. It will sweep through the Wasatch Front and other parts of the state later in the day, providing a mix of valley rain and mountain snow.

"Rain showers from (northern to southern Utah) ... really start filling in Saturday night with a nice punch," he said. "It's sped up a little bit. The brunt of the rain will be Saturday night into Sunday morning."

Rain and snow showers are expected to linger into Sunday, primarily impacting the eastern half of the state. Johnson said some showers may remain along the Wasatch region in the morning and afternoon.

The National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory, stating that Utah's mountain ranges may receive 4 to 10 inches of snow. Parts of the Cottonwood Canyons could receive a foot or more.

Johnson said elevations above 5,000 feet will likely receive snow from the storm, especially by Sunday. Higher-elevation communities like Park City may receive a few inches of snow.

KSL Weather models indicate the storm's core — expected to impact central Utah — could produce about two-thirds of an inch in some valleys by Sunday evening. About a quarter or a third of an inch is possible along the Wasatch Front and northern Utah.

It's slightly smaller than other storms over the past few weeks, but it can still provide Utah with much-needed precipitation after a warm and mostly dry October.

"This would be nice if we can get this storm to perform the way it's looking like it will," Johnson said. "It gives us some really beneficial rainfall."

Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.

Record warmth piles onto drying conditions

Salt Lake City posted a record average temperature of 62.4 degrees, almost 8 degrees above normal and nearly 2 degrees above its previous October record over the past 150 years, according to National Weather Service data. It was boosted by a record 14 days of 80 degrees and its first-ever 90-degree October day since records began in 1874.

A statewide report will be released next week, but average temperatures were above normal in about every city with available public data — well above average, in many cases.

The two major storms that slammed the state in the second half of the month only cooled things down a little bit. Those also snapped dry spells that carried over from the prior month, which was the state's third-warmest and 14th-driest September since 1895.

Santaquin was a big October winner, receiving 2.24 inches of precipitation, while Tooele, Price and Fillmore ended up above 1.5 inches. Provo fell just shy of 1.5 inches, putting it on the list of below-normal cities. Salt Lake City's 0.81 inches fell nearly a half-inch below its monthly normal, while Ogden, Logan and a large chunk of southwest Utah also fell below normal.

The latter is a key reason why severe drought returned to Washington County on Oct. 8. About half of the county is now listed in that category, while the rest remains in moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The latest report lists about one-fifth of the state in drought, about double the amount as it did heading into the month. Parts of the West Desert and Uinta Mountains are also in moderate drought, while most of the rest of the state is listed as "abnormally dry."

Per Utah Division of Water Resources data, the state's reservoirs still entered November about 75% full, similar to last year and 20 percentage points above the median average for the month.

November's uncertainty

However, Utah may also see relief beyond this weekend.

Another storm is forecast to impact northern Utah on Election Day on Tuesday, while the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center updated its November outlook on Thursday to list Utah — and most of the West — as having equal chances when it comes to temperatures and precipitation. That means there is no clear signal as to whether this month will produce above, below or near-normal temperatures and precipitation.

Initial November models leaned toward warmer and drier conditions. Johnson said the shift indicates that Utah's storm odds are improving ahead of the vital meteorological winter, which factors into the state's water supply.

"This is really good news," he said. "It's good to see that the scales continue to tilt toward a wetter and cooler pattern."

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