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SALT LAKE CITY — A new poll shows Republican candidate Derek Brown at the front of the pack of five candidates for Utah attorney general in a poll conducted less than three weeks out from the general election.
Current Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes did not seek reelection, which left the seat open. The latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX among 813 registered voters shows Brown with 40% — a 20-percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Rudy Bautista who is at 20%. There are just 10 days remaining before the Nov. 5 election.
Brown is the former chair of the Utah Republican Party and a former state lawmaker, and Bautista is a longtime defense attorney.
The poll shows unaffiliated candidate Austin Hepworth at 5%, United Utah Party candidate Michelle Quist at 4% and Libertarian candidate W. Andrew McCullough at 3%.
Twenty-eight percent of the registered voters who responded to the poll said they were unsure which candidate they would select.
Brown's polling at 40% indicates a favorable position, said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, in a statement. "However, with 28% of voters undecided, there is still potential for some shifts before Election Day. Without an incumbent, the race feels more open, and third-party candidates could influence the final outcome. It will be interesting to see how the race develops as voters continue to make their decisions."
When undecided voters were asked who they were leaning toward, Brown's lead increased — just over half of undecided voters said they'd cast their ballot for him. If the election were held today with these leaners making a choice, the poll showed 55% of registered voters saying they'd cast their ballot for Brown and 25% saying they would vote for Bautista.
Hepworth was next at 10% followed by Quist at 6% and McCollough at 4%. The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll was conducted by HarrisX online from Oct. 15 to 19 and has a +/- 3.4% margin of error rate.
Campaign responses to the poll
"These poll numbers validate what we see all across Utah, including in Carbon and Emery County, where we are today," said Brown in a statement to the Deseret News. "Our message of a Utah attorney general who will push back against federal overreach is resonating with Utah voters, and we will continue to work tirelessly for every vote until Election Day."
Bautista said he thought the poll numbers were a little disappointing. "I would hope that the public that hasn't voted yet would still educate themselves as best as possible to make an informed decision."
Meeting Brown was one of the positive aspects of the election process for Bautista and he said he thinks Brown would be an "excellent" attorney general if he wins.
"I can say with utmost confidence Derek will bring integrity back to that office," said Bautista.
"This year, Utahns have more choices than usual for attorney general, and the results reflect the fact that there are good options to choose from and that Utahns are involved and actively reviewing their options," said Hepworth, later adding it represented the beauty of being American to have choices.
He continued by saying he believes people should vote based on what would be best for Utah and a vote can shape policy moving forward.
"If voters want to continue with the same scandal and party politics, they know where to look," said Quist. "But for those tired of watching the attorney general's office play partisan games instead of standing up for Utah, I'm ready and willing to bring real integrity and independence to the job."
McCullough said he didn't expect to find himself at the top of the poll results. "I just expect to get enough people's attention to make them think." He said he also thought "the Republican is polling lower than I would have thought" and he also added he thought the Democrat doesn't move much with leaners.
The state of the race
Reyes first announced he would not run for reelection in December 2023, citing his desire to focus on his family and private law practice. This news came after Brown had announced the creation of an exploratory committee as a potential primary challenger to Reyes — the committee was chaired by former Gov. Gary Herbert.
The primary election then heated up: Brown faced three challengers and Bautista faced one. Bautista won the Democratic convention and, therefore, the nomination for the primary election. Brown got on the ballot through the signature-gathering process and the Republican convention whittled down the race to Brown and two other candidates who ultimately lost the primary.
The race is a five-way one with McCullough and Quist tossing their names in through the Libertarian Party and the United Utah Party, respectively, while Hepworth is running unaffiliated.
One of the main focuses of the race, whether before the primary or heading into November, has been restoring trust and transparency in the Utah Attorney General's Office. At the October debate ahead of the general election, candidates were asked about their vision for the office.
Brown said he's spent most of the year traveling and asking Utahns what they want in an attorney general. He said if he's elected, he would protect the vulnerable, be a hedge against federal overreach and be accountable to Utahns. Bautista said since he is not accepting donations for his campaign, he would not be beholden to anyone.
As expected, voters who were polled appear to suggest they will vote along mostly party lines in this particular election.
The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll (the one including leaners) shows that. A plurality of voters in the independent category or "other" category (not Republican or Democrat) say they will vote for Brown along with 79% of Republican respondents.
The results were also broken down by ideology: liberal, moderate and conservative.
Bautista has the biggest chunk of voters self-identifying as liberal at 59% compared to Brown's 25%. The plurality of moderate voters, at 43%, said they would break for Brown, while 26% said they would go for Bautista.
Seventy-five percent of conservative voters said they would vote for Brown and 11% said they would vote for Bautista.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.
