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PROVO — BYU continued its perfect start to the 2024 season with another Big 12 victory, this time a 41-19 win over Arizona.
The BYU defense continued to be the difference as they forced four Arizona turnovers — one was a pick six, while two others set their offense up for short scoring drives.
The Cougars' pass defense held Arizona gunslinger quarterback Noah Fifita in check, with a low 50% completion rate and three interceptions. In my opponent-adjusted numbers, BYU ranks second nationally in pass defense, and the performance Saturday was more proof to back it up.
The win moved BYU to 6-0, where they are one of 10 undefeated teams in FBS and one of the few with multiple wins over currently ranked teams. This is their highest Associated Press ranking, and best start since that 2020 season.
Big 12 play rolls on with another home game, this one under the Friday night lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium against the defending league runner-up Oklahoma State (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Oklahoma State 59.8 (17th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Oklahoma State 56.3 (26th)
2024 season: BYU 73.9 (10th) | Oklahoma State 38.0 (58th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
Last year, Oklahoma State overcame an awful September to rally all the way to the Big 12 title game and to a surprise 10-win season. My Game Grader painted a different picture and ranked them outside the final top 25, and below-average on both offense and defense when adjusting for opponent strength.
Even with nearly the entire starting lineup back in Stillwater, the Cowboys have fallen toward the bottom of the Power Four and currently check in at 58th of 70 Power Four teams.
Oklahoma State started 3-0 but are 0-3 since, and have lost all three Big 12 games: Utah by 3, Kansas State by 22, and West Virginia by 24.
BYU has shattered all preseason expectations with their perfect 6-0 start and has climbed all the way to No. 10 in my 2024 Game Grader for their highest spot in this metric since their 2020 team.
Oklahoma State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Oklahoma State offense (2024): 14th of 16 Big 12 (14th passing, 15th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (1st passing, 4th rushing)
This was supposed to be the Ollie Gordon show. The 2023 national rushing champ (1,732 rushing yards) returned and was garnering preseason Heisman hype, but that has been slowed down. Gordon has only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once, and is averaging less than half of his per-game rushing output from 2023.
Seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman had high expectations of his own, but is ranked 12th on the Big 12's QB Rating leaderboard; and this week, head coach Mike Gundy announced a change to backup Garret Rangel being promoted to starter.
We saw Rangel for a few series in the second-half of the Utah game, but he went just 3-of-11 passing, and has at 45% completion rate so far this season.
Look for BYU's top-rated defense, and specifically its excellent pass defense, to feast on the new starter.
Jay Hill's aggressive defense continues to generate takeaways — third most interceptions, third most takeaways — which has been the key in victories over Kansas State and Arizona. Hill deserves a spot on the Broyles Award watchlist that is given to the nation's best assistant coach.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 11th of 16 Big 12 (9th passing, 5th rushing)
Oklahoma State defense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (14th passing, 16th rushing)
Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick opened up the playbook Saturday with a trick play — a double pass from Jake Retzlaff to Parker Kingston, who found LJ Martin in the end zone. Kingston and Martin both scored two touchdowns, Chase Roberts added another, and Retzlaff was an efficient 18-of-32 passing with no turnovers.
BYU welcomed back their original starting running back pair, and Martin and Hinckley Ropati combined for 114 yards on 20 carries.
The performance against Arizona pushed BYU further up the Big 12 leaderboards in my opponent-adjusted metrics, where they are now in the top 10 of both passing and rushing. In the same metric, Oklahoma State ranks as the worst defense in the entire Big 12. This was supposed to be a veteran defense packed with all-league candidates, but it has failed to live up the hype.
They were physically dominated in their three league losses, especially on the ground. Utah rushed for 249 yards, Kansas State rushed for 300, and West Virginia posted an incredible 389 rushing yards.
As long as BYU takes care of the football, they should be able to generate a consistent run game, which will open up explosive passing for Retzlaff and the deep receiver room.
Game prediction
I have been very impressed by BYU so far this season, where they look like a contender in the wide-open league race.
BYU was projected toward the bottom of the league, Oklahoma State was a favorite, but the results halfway through the season could not have been more opposite. BYU is the better team here on both sides of the ball, and benefits from a rowdy, camera-shaking home field advantage Friday night.
BYU 34 | Oklahoma State 21
