Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah entered its first bye week of the 2024 season with a 4-1 record after sweeping their nonconference slate and splitting their first two Big 12 matchups.
After a statement victory over then-No. 14 Oklahoma State, Utah came up short against former Pac-12 rival Arizona in a 23-10 loss in Salt Lake City. The loss went against several trends of dominance during their decade-long home sellout streak; and even worse, it was very winnable for the Utes had they executed better in the key spots.
Utah made it to the red zone four times and left with just 10 points. The first two trips got inside the 10-yard line, but Utah went for it on fourth down both times and failed. Even field goals there, or one out of two conversions, would have altered the complexion of the game, and maybe even flipped the result. But going 0-4 on fourth downs and 2.5 points per red zone trip are not going to win many ball games in the Big 12.
The bye week came at a great time, and hopefully allowed for the defense to get healthy and make improvements to their run defense. On the flip side, the Cam Rising injury saga continues, but hopefully the extra week helped his hand heal enough to see game action. Utah heads to Tempe, Arizona, to face Arizona State (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) in a late Friday night kickoff (8:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Arizona State 39.9 (61st)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Arizona State 34.2 (59th)
2024 season: Utah 61.0 (25th) | Arizona State 57.5 (30th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Arizona State to finish 14th. Utah was meeting those high expectations until their loss to Arizona, which means they almost need to go perfect the rest of the way to ensure a berth into the Big 12 title game.
Arizona State has impressed with a 4-1 start and a pair of Power Four victories, defeating Mississippi State by 7 points, and then a wild 35-31 win over Kansas last Saturday. Their lone loss was by a score to Texas Tech, but this team is playing solid football and is a step up from their past two teams, which both went 3-9 in 2022 and 2023.
Arizona State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Arizona State offense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (13th passing, 10th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (4th passing, 8th rushing)
Not shown in the advanced stats is a do-it-all player that Utes fans would love to have on their sideline. Cam Skattebo is a bowling ball of a running back who always grinds for extra yards and runs through — not around — defenders. In 2023, the entire Arizona State offense ran through Skattebo, and he is the centerpiece yet again in 2024. He is averaging 165 total yards per game, is second in the Big 12 in rushing, and leads all running backs in the conference in receiving.
Freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt has brought stability to the QB spot, and is fresh off of a four-touchdown game against Kansas, which included the game-winning drive in the final minute. Leavitt is also a threat in the run game, with 257 rushing yards and four scores on the year.
Utah played uncharacteristically on defense last game; they were missing tackles, whiffed on a few potential game-changing sacks, and then couldn't get the stop in crunch time. They are also missing two of their star players with lingering injuries, keeping defensive end Connor O'Toole and linebacker Karene Reid out of the lineup and "questionable" for Friday night's game. All that said, I trust Morgan Scalley to get this side of the ball back to elite status after the bye week.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (15th passing, 14th rushing)
Arizona State defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 2nd rushing)
Cam Rising Watch rolls into October, with the storylines wavering about his rehab and what is blocking his return to the field. This week, head coach Kyle Whittingham hinted at Rising returning for Friday night's game, but it seems that we have heard that weekly for the past two seasons.
His return would be welcomed and would help unlock more of the offense's potential. True freshman Isaac Wilson is currently ranked 14th on the Big 12's QB rating leaderboard, and is one of just two starters in the league with more interceptions than touchdowns. The surrounding cast has upped their game: Micah Bernard is averaging 109 rushing yards per game (5th in Big 12) and Dorian Singer is averaging 125 receiving yards per game in league play.
Arizona State is a much-improved unit from last year and has held all five opponents under their season averages. Coordinator Brian Ward's 4-2-5 scheme emphasizes turnovers, and they will gamble more than others to get those turnovers. This does leave them over-exposed to long-yardage explosive plays, so this matchup depends on Wilson (or Rising) taking care of the ball and hitting on vertical shots. That assignment is Rising's proven strength, so the Utes could really use their veteran back now more than ever.
Game prediction
Utah has won four straight in this series by an average margin of 26 points. This one will be closer than usual, especially if Rising is a no-show, but Utah is the more proven, complete team and should bounce back after the bye week.
Utah 24 | Arizona State 17
