Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
PROVO — BYU shocked the college football world late Saturday night with a stunning 38-9 blowout win over then-No. 13 Kansas State to extend their undefeated start to 4-0.
The 29-point margin marked the program's biggest win over a top-15 opponent in school history and vaulted BYU into the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since October 2022.
Kansas State led 6-0 with just two minutes left in the first half after controlling the first 28 minutes, but the next six minutes of game clock saw an absolute scoring explosion for BYU — 31 straight points — to solidify the victory early in the third quarter.
The BYU defense created two turnovers in those final two minutes of the first half, returning a fumble for a touchdown and picking off Kansas State's Avery Johnson to set up another short touchdown drive. The defense picked him off again on the second half's opening drive, and forced a three-and-out series on the next possession to set up a punt situation.
Parker Kingston fielded the punt at his own 7-yard line, retreated to his own goal, and then went 100 yards down the sideline for the legendary touchdown. Kingston's return threw LaVell Edwards Stadium into a frenzy that shook the television broadcast cameras and was certainly the "play of the week" in college football.
BYU brings its undefeated record down to Waco, Texas, in search of its first-ever Big 12 road win (10 a.m. MDT, FS1).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Baylor 50.6 (40th)
2023 Season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Baylor 28.8 (66th)
2024 season: BYU 64.5 (19th) | Baylor 46.2 (47th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
Baylor went 3-9 last year and graded among the worst in Power Four football in almost all of my metrics. This year, they have dominated both their non-AQ opponents but are 0-2 against the Big 12.
The Bears trailed Utah 17-0 at half before knocking out their starting quarterback Cam Rising, and then lost last week in a shocker to Colorado. Baylor allowed the unthinkable — a last-second 43-yard touchdown pass — on the final play of regulation, and then fumbled the ball at the goal-line in overtime.
It was an awful loss, and one that head coach Dave Aranda called "heart-wrenching."
Baylor with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Baylor offense (2024): 11th of 16 Big 12 (7th passing, 11th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 7th rushing)
Baylor had a quarterback battle that extended far into fall camp between incumbent, Power Four veteran Sawyer Robertson and All-MAC performer Dequan Finn (Toledo).
Finn won the battle, started the first two games but ranked just 15th in the Big 12 in QB Rating and is battling an injury. Robertson was handed the keys to the offense before the Air Force win, and he played well again Saturday against Colorado.
On the season, Robertson ranks in the league's top five in several metrics like yards per attempt (9.3 yards), completion percentage (64%) and QB Rating.
Robertson has poise in the pocket and was also able to burn Colorado with his legs on a 45-yard touchdown run. Even with the offensive coordinator change, Baylor has continued to go run-heavy with one of the most lopsided run/pass breakdowns in the entire league.
This season marks Kalani Sitake's third 4-0 start to a season, joining 2020 and 2021. Those teams had NFL-caliber quarterback play and top-ranked explosive offenses. This 2024 edition is led by its defense.
In that crazy six minutes in the middle of the game, Jack Kelly forced a fumble, Tommy Prassas returned it for a touchdown, defensive lineman Tyler Batty grabbed an interception, and then Harrison Taggart got the second pick.
The BYU defense is playing elite football right now and kept both SMU and Kansas State out of the end zone, and has been one of the biggest year-over-year improvements in Power Four so far.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 12th of 16 Big 12 (12 h passing, 8th rushing)
Baylor defense (2024): 10th of 16 Big 12 (7th passing, 16th rushing)
So far, BYU is below the Big 12 average in yards per play and rushing yards per carry, but does check in at No. 6 in QB Rating. When you adjust for opponent, they fall in both categories — even in the 29-point win Saturday they were out-gained by 130 yards.
That said, quarterback Jake Retzlaff earns credit for extending plays (and drives) with his legs; and compared to his 2023 starts he is improving and taking better care of the football.
BYU remains thin at the running back spot, with original starter LJ Martin out, and backup Hinckley Ropati is "doubtful" for Saturday. Former walk-on Sione Moa took the opportunity and shined last week, with 76 yards on 15 carries, and should be featured again given Baylor's struggles defending the run.
Aranda is a defensive guru who won a national title with LSU in 2019 and then turned Baylor into a conference champion in 2021. Since then, his defense has been collapsing.
The stats and metrics look bad again for 2024, but you can throw out those numbers and just watch their last few plays on Saturday. They allowed a low-percentage touchdown pass on the final play — and nearly allowed another one on the prior play.
BYU should be able to unlock more of its passing game this week against one of the league's worst pass defenses. Yes, the Baylor pass rush did sack Shedeur Sanders eight times, but that is par for the course with Colorado's nation-worst offensive line.
Game prediction
BYU entered 2024 with a 4.5 projected win total by Las Vegas but could eclipse that number Saturday before the calendar flips from September. They have exceeded my expectations so far, and are the better team in this matchup.
Baylor's devastating loss last week will slow their start here, and BYU will climb to 5-0.
BYU 30 | Baylor 23
