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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah kicked off the 2024 season with a 49-0 shutout over Southern Utah as they welcomed back their seventh-year star quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe.
Rising missed the 2023 season with injury rehab but kicked off the rust right away by tossing a career-high five touchdowns in just two quarters of action. Three of those were thrown to Kuithe, who broke the Big 12 record for tight end touchdowns in a half. Kuithe found open lanes and even broke four tackles on the goal line during one score.
With a 35-0 lead at half, Utah was able to rest their starters and get plenty of game reps for younger players.
The schedule heats up as they host Baylor Saturday in what will be the 85th straight sellout at Rice-Eccles Stadium. While Baylor is a Big 12 member, this is actually not a Big 12 league game and will not be counted in the conference standings. Rather, this is the final game of their home-and-home series that was scheduled well in advance of this round of conference realignment.
After winning last year's matchup 20-13 in Waco, Utah goes for the series sweep Saturday (1:30 p.m. MDT, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Baylor 50.6 (40th)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Baylor 28.8 (66th)
2024 preseason: Utah (8th) | Baylor (50th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After consecutive top-10 finishes, Utah slid to 35th (of 70 Power Four programs) last year.
As Utah fans are well aware, their 2023 struggles were a result of losing 157 combined starts to injury from the two-deep. In all my years covering college football, it was the most injured team I can recall.
Both teams handled their in-state FCS opponents in Week 1. Baylor routed Tarleton State 45-3; and while their 2023 season was a failure, their 3-9 record is sure to improve in 2024 with one of the most experienced, veteran rosters in Power Four.
In my annual preview magazine Pick Six Previews, Baylor was my selection for 12th place in the new 16-team Big 12.
Baylor with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Baylor offense (2023): 53rd of 70 Power Four
Utah defense (2023): 19th of 70 Power Four
Head coach Dave Aranda hired Jake Spavital to install his "Bear Raid" spread passing attack here, to attempt to jump start a broken offense.
Back when Baylor won the Big 12 championship in 2021, they did so behind one of the nation's strongest offensive lines. That strength has reverted all the way to a weakness, as they graded poorly last year in both of my offensive line stats: 90th in run push and 91st in pass protection.
It was a youth movement last year. Their offensive line had five freshmen on the two-deep — the most nationally — and now the whole offense returns intact aside from the quarterback.
The top three rushers and top five receivers surround former All-MAC quarterback Dequan Finn (Toledo), who shined in the opener with 192 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and a long 39-yard score on the ground.
Finn's dual-threat ability and zone-read options will challenge Utah.
It will be strength on strength here, as Utah fields one of the nation's best defenses, yet again. In the opener, the defensive line flexed with five sacks, eight tackles for loss, and limited Southern Utah to just 150 total yards.
Utah has an advantage along the line of scrimmage here with multiple guys in contention for All-Big 12. Van Filinger and Junior Tafuna headline my top-rated Big 12 defensive line and face off against my No. 11 Big 12 offensive line here.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2023): 65th of 70 Power Four
Baylor defense (2023): 69th of 70 Power Four
Rising officially returned to action Saturday and completed 10-of-15 passes for 254 yards and five touchdowns. He even tucked the ball and ran a few times — which I'm sure made Utah fans nervous — but the oft-injured quarterback looked better than ever.
There should be opportunities for Rising and the Utah offense here after Baylor posted some of the worst defensive stats in America in 2023. In my opponent-adjusted passing category, Baylor's defense was dead last — 70th of 70 teams — and they were 69th overall.
Baylor was bottom 10 nationally in both the yards per carry and the opponent QB Rating stats, and lost their two best defenders, Gabe Hall and TJ Franklin. Yes, like the offense, it was a lot of youth whose experience should pay dividends as veterans in 2024, but this side of the ball marks a decisive advantage for Utah.
Game prediction
With the blowout opening win, Utah moved to 62-10 (.861) as a home favorite during their Rice-Eccles sellout streak, and (.610) as a home favorite against-the-spread over that span.
Both teams are much improved from what they showed in 2023, as the injured Utes are back healthy and the young Bears are now a veteran roster. Utah has the advantage at every position group and are my pick to win Saturday and eventually win the Big 12.
Utah 31 | Baylor 20
