Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — State Rep. Phil Lyman has launched a write-in campaign for governor after the Utah Supreme Court dismissed his petition to remove Gov. Spencer Cox from office and name himself as the Republican nominee in November's election.
Lyman lost to Cox in the GOP primary election on June 25 by more than 37,500 votes. He has not yet conceded, citing concerns over the transparency of signature packets and a 10-year-old law that provides an alternative route to primary elections other than the GOP nominating convention, which Lyman won in April.
A few of Lyman's colleagues in the Utah Legislature say Lyman, who will continue to represent southeastern Utah until January, is drawing attention to real reforms that need to be made to Utah election law.
But several GOP lawmakers in the state's House and Senate expressed worry that his last-ditch efforts to appear on the general election ballot are the wrong way to advertise or achieve such reforms, and will help Cox's Democratic opponent, state Rep. Brian King, while hurting the Utah Republican Party.
Lyman launches write-in campaign
On Tuesday, the Utah Supreme Court denied Lyman's request to remove Cox and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson from office and advance himself to the general election. The justices said they had already rejected the same arguments in previous cases and Lyman did not show any legal basis for setting aside the primary results.
In the hours since the ruling was released, Lyman has dived headlong into a write-in candidacy, saying he will provide supporters with "write-in" yard signs and expressing confidence that his campaign — now unaffiliated and unsupported by the state Republican Party — can tilt the 2024 gubernatorial race in his favor.
"We will absolutely continue to fight," Lyman said in a post on Sunday. "We question not only the primary election results; we also reject the entire apparatus that allows corrupt establishment politicians to retain their power and influence year after year, without any transparency."
The Deseret News reached out to Lyman for further comment on his decision to run as a write-in candidate but he referred back to his Sunday press release. Lyman has until Sept. 3 at 5 p.m. to file as a write-in candidate. As soon as he does, counties can begin printing ballots.
While the Utah Republican Party supported Lyman as the convention nominee following his 67.5%-32.5% win over Cox among convention delegates, state GOP Chair Rob Axson said "a write-in candidate is not something that we would ever support."
"We are Republicans for a reason. We believe in our nominees," Axson told the Deseret News. "If somebody believes in the platform and the tenets of the Republican Party, they should not be working against the Republican Party and its candidates."
Can Lyman win as a write-in candidate?
The odds are stacked against Lyman's plan to challenge both major parties' nominees.
Marty Carpenter managed former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.'s 2020 gubernatorial campaign when he lost to Cox by less than 2 percentage points. After the narrow defeat, Huntsman was encouraged to reenter the race as a write-in candidate.
But the realities of a campaign where the candidate's name does not even appear on the ballot made the decision to forego a write-in candidacy "fairly simple," Carpenter said.
"It's a long shot, at best, for a write-in candidate to even really compete," Carpenter said. "There's virtually no way that a write-in candidate wins; and while he may draw some support away from Spencer Cox — (because) the voters who have been big Phil Lyman supporters are likely to vote for him — it won't be enough to really make a significant impact."
There's virtually no way that a write-in candidate wins; and while he may draw some support away from Spencer Cox ... it won't be enough to really make a significant impact.
–Marty Carpenter, manager of former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.’s 2020 gubernatorial campaign
Lyman's 195,000 votes from the primary likely form a ceiling of support, Carpenter said, explaining there is "an ardent group" that "dislike the governor enough" to write Lyman's name on their ballot. But compared to the 919,000 votes received by Cox and Henderson in the 2020 general election, and the 443,000 received by their Democratic opponent, Lyman's vote total appears more likely to secure him a third-place finish in 2024, according to Carpenter.
Veteran Utah GOP operative Jason Powers said the country's last successful statewide write-in campaign was likely that of Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, in 2010 after she was ousted in her primary. But Murkowski's historic win relied on high name I.D. as a sitting senator and millions of dollars.
"A successful statewide write-in campaign in Utah would be very expensive, in the neighborhood of $11 million," Powers said. "With the general election just 12 weeks away, a challenger raising that amount of money in this state is a nearly impossible task."
Will Lyman's write-in candidacy hurt Cox?
Rep. Kera Birkeland, R-Morgan, doesn't believe her colleague's quixotic write-in campaign poses a threat to Cox. But she worries it could help Democrats by further dividing Utah Republicans.
"What I think it'll do is just create more factions within the Republican Party which will harm a lot more Republicans running for office statewide," Birkeland said.
Lyman's post-primary messaging has featured numerous suggestions that a vote for King — the Democratic Party nominee — would be better than a vote for Cox in the general election. In a post on Tuesday, Birkeland said Lyman's write-in campaign reveals that Lyman has a "preference for Brian King over Spencer Cox for governor."
