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WASHINGTON — The number of Latino voters in the United States is growing. They are mixed in their support for the presidential hopefuls and economics are among the top issues for the group.
Notably, the numbers suggest increasing support for the Republican Party, at least in presidential preferences.
The Washington, D.C.-based Pew Research Group distributed findings this week from polling in early July that offer insights into the political leanings, preferences and concerns of Latino voters. The polling conducted after the June 27 presidential debate between President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican. What's more, it took place before the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump and the July 21 announcement by Biden he would step down as the Democratic presidential contender, which have shaken things up in the impending contest.
At any rate, the figures offer a recent snapshot into some of the views of Latinos, an increasingly large and influential segment of the electorate in what's becoming a contentious election year.
Though Latinos historically have skewed Democratic in presidential voting, Biden and Trump garnered an equal share of support among those in the Pew survey, 36% for each. Another 24% favored third-party hopeful Robert Kennedy, according to Pew a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Kamala Harris hadn't yet replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential hopeful when the poll was conducted. But wherever the figures are now, the polling stands in contrast to the actual 2020 vote, when 61% of Latinos voted for Biden and 36% went for Trump, a 25-percentage point gap. In 2016, 66% of Latinos voted for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic hopeful that year, and 28% voted for Trump, a 38-percentage point gap, Pew said.
The U.S. economy and inflation have been key concerns for Latinos this year, Pew said. On that front, Trump had the edge over Biden among those polled, 52% saying they were very or somewhat confident in the GOP's ability to make good decisions in the area versus 40% support for Biden.
Trump garnered higher backing on immigration policy, 45% saying they were very or somewhat confident in him on the issue versus 39% for Biden. Biden had the edge on abortion policy, 50% saying they were confident in him on the issue versus 45% for Trump. Biden also had broader support than Trump on the question of selecting good U.S. Supreme Court nominees.
On other measures, the two hopefuls mustered tempered marks. "Relatively few Latino voters would describe Trump as honest and Biden as mentally sharp," Pew said.
The mixed sentiments toward Biden and Trump notwithstanding, Latinos have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party as a whole than the Republican Party. "Some 44% of Latino registered voters have a very or mostly favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 32% say the same about the GOP," Pew said.
14.7% of all eligible voters — a new high
Pew earlier this year broke down the number of eligible Latino voters in the United States, saying the number has increased to 36.2 million for 2024, up nearly four million from 2020. At that level, Latinos will represent 14.7% of all eligible voters across the country come November, which Pew said is a new high.
"This share has steadily increased over the past two decades and is up from 13.6% in 2020. In 2000, by comparison, Hispanics made up just 7.4% of U.S. eligible voters," Pew said.
The largest blocs of Latino voters are in California, Texas, Florida, New York and Arizona, which collectively account for around 65% of all voters in the group. In Utah as of 2022, according to Pew, Latinos accounted for 10% of the 2.29 million eligible voters in the state, or 220,000 of the total.
Growth notwithstanding, Latinos are less likely to be eligible to vote than the U.S. population as a whole. That's due, in part, to the fact the group skews younger, including a larger relative segment that's too young to vote, and also because of the number of Latinos who aren't U.S. citizens.
