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SALT LAKE CITY — Just over 430,000 Republicans cast ballots in Utah's recent June 25 primary elections, a significant decrease compared with the 2020 primary election, when more than 527,000 Republicans turned in ballots.
The number appears surprising, given the number of high-profile open races for Senate, Congress and attorney general, but University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said the dip in turnout could have less to do with the number of notable races than the relative lack of competitive ones.
The 2020 gubernatorial race to replace former Gov. Gary Herbert featured then-Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox running against former Gov. Jon Huntsman, a race Cox won by less than 7,000 votes. This cycle, Cox was a popular incumbent governor seeking reelection, and well-known Rep. John Curtis was seen as a heavy favorite in the other major statewide race for Senate.
"In all honesty, even though it was a contested race, I think it just attracted a little bit less attention in part because you had a sitting governor being contested by somebody who I don't think as many voters took as seriously," Burbank said, speaking of state Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, who mounted a primary challenge to Cox.
Although Lyman outperformed many peoples' expectations in getting 45.6% of the vote this year, he lost by nearly 40,000 votes in a race that wasn't particularly close. Burbank said he wouldn't be surprised if Cox would have won by an even bigger margin had more Republicans turned out, given his strong popularity in the state.
The fact that the Senate race had four primary challengers may also have helped dampen turnout, Burbank said. Former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessman Jason Walton likely pulled some conservative votes from Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs — who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump — making for a less competitive race than if voters had a binary option between Curtis and Staggs.
"What matters to (voters) is competitiveness," Burbank said. "John Curtis sort of stood out, certainly in terms of his advertising and his presence. Had that been a two-person race with two really well-known candidates, you might have seen a bit more competitiveness and turnout there."
While fewer Republicans turned out this year, the total number of active Republican voters in the state increased from 788,555 the day before the 2020 primary elections to 902,611 at the time of last month's election. Overall turnout fell from 66.85% in 2020 to 47.65% this year.
Rich County reported the highest turnout with 70.79%, while Utah County's 43.56% was the lowest.
