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SALT LAKE CITY — "Californians are ruining Utah and turning it into California."
"Californians are voting for Democrats and changing Utah's politics."
"Californians are why Utah's housing prices are so high."
These sentiments are common among Utah residents, and grabbed local and national headlines earlier this year after Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said Californians should "stay in California" because of rising home prices and water shortages in the Beehive State.
This animosity prompts the question: To what extent are Californians actually changing Utah's politics and housing?
California migration is not unique to Utah
Utahn's frustrations with Californians is a localization of national attitudes toward Californians leaving their state. Similar feelings about Californians "ruining" states have been reported in Nevada, Texas, Colorado, Arizona and Tennessee, among others.
Hostilities often run especially high among officials in red states receiving residents from the traditionally blue California. Less than a month after Cox's remarks, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told Californians that the migration of residents to Florida proved that California was "too woke" and expensive.
The Public Policy Institute of California recorded the state's first population decline in California's history in 2021. Slowing birth rates, elevated death rates from COVID-19 and pandemic-related international immigration restrictions have contributed to the trend.
However, a 2023 survey by institute researchers also noted 34% of Californians said they were considering moving out of state due to housing costs. Politics might also be a contributing trend to the desire to move, with Californians who identify as Republican much more likely to say they wanted to move.
Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, noted Utahns are likely feeling the effects of migration more than California, and said, "Some of the more recent data shows that Utah is not even in the top 10 state destinations for Californians. That's part of the fact that there're just so many Californians. But California is the No. 1 origin state for Utah."
"It's not just California," she said. "There are an equal number of people that are moving to Utah from outside of the country, as there are (from) California. So there's a lot going on when it comes to Utah's migration."
Are California voters turning Utah blue?
Utahns often fear migration will make Utah more like California — in everything from voting for Democrats, to massive traffic congestion and unaffordable housing.
KSL.com has previously reported migration to Utah from blue states can contribute to swinging elections, but Utah is also experiencing broader demographic changes that affect its politics:
- Utah is the youngest state in the U.S. — young people tend to vote for Democrats.
- Utah is a one of the fastest-growing technology hubs in the country. Tech workers also tend to trend left.
- Utah is a safe, conservative state entirely represented on the national level by Republicans — but it has a unique brand of conservatism. It was among the slowest to support former President Donald Trump in 2016 and is represented, in part, by the only Republican senator to vote to impeach Trump twice.
- Utah's governor is also the chairman of the bipartisan National Governors Association, and has led national initiatives against partisanship.
- In both 2016 and 2022, Utah grabbed national attention for its willingness to support third-party candidate Evan McMullin for both president and senate. While both runs were unsuccessful, Utah has been recognized for its openness to political challenges outside of the two-party system.
- Utah is also one of many red states across America experiencing a population bump from blue states, so much so that national Democratic presidential nominees are increasingly looking to Utah and the Sun Belt.
Asked if migration to Utah is significantly affecting its politics, Harris said, "I don't know if I necessarily see some political divide. I think it's more complicated than that. I think people are making very rational decisions based on their situations."
"California is obviously a blue state, Utah is obviously a red state, but Utah is not the same kind of red state as Texas, and Texas has a ton of net in-migration. Georgia has a lot of net in-migration, as does Florida," she said. "I would say that it's not necessarily like a political issue.
"I think, ultimately, Utah has been very reasonably priced — you could buy a home. It's got great outdoor recreation. I mean, it was kind of like a secret for a long time. And now I feel like the secret is out. As that started to happen, you started to see more traffic and congestion; you started to see the housing market tighten, become more expensive; the lines were longer to get in your (ski) runs."
There are an equal number of people that are moving to Utah from outside of the country, as there are (from) California.
–Emily Harris
"The thing that I'd like to add to that, is that a lot of Californians are moving a lot of places and so it's not that Utah isn't feeling that impact, but it's that Utah is not unique in feeling that impact," Harris said.
In his 2023 State of the State address, Cox promised Utah would build more housing "in a way that does not diminish the quality of life," and he would "make certain that Utah does not become like California."
While California migration isn't the major driver of Utah's voting habits, politicians are responding to Utah's growth — and using Californians as a catch-all representation for it.
