Pac-12 bowl projections: CFP bid seems likely as UW, Oregon collide

Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:

— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year's Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.

Victories by Washington and Oregon last weekend didn't secure a College Football Playoff berth for the Pac-12. The conference could end up on the outside of the four-team event once again.

But the undefeated Huskies and one-loss Ducks have seemingly clinched spots in the New Year's Six — and the cash windfall that comes with it — regardless of the outcome of the conference title game Friday night in Las Vegas or other collisions across championship weekend.

This year, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the CFP semifinals, with the Orange, Cotton, Peach and Fiesta rounding out the New Year's Six lineup.

Although the Orange is booked, five at-large slots exist for the power conference in the other three games.

The cash available is considerable, as the CFP's website explains:

A conference will receive $6 million for each team that is selected for a Playoff Semifinal. There will be no additional distribution to conferences whose teams qualify for the national championship game. A conference will receive $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the arrangement."

If the Pac-12 winner advances to the playoff and the runner-up participates in the New Year's Six, the conference will take home $10 million, to be split evenly among the 12 schools. (Expenses for the participant are covered separately.)

If the Pac-12 gets blocked from the CFP but grabs two at-large slots, the haul dips to $8 million.

Either way, that's hundreds of thousands of dollars per campus that was not baked into budgets when the competition year began.

They can all use the money, some more than others.

Now, our penultimate Pac-12 bowl projections …

College Football Playoff/Rose Bowl

Our pick: Oregon

Opponent: CFP No. 2 seed (likely Michigan)

Comment: Washington would be a lock for the playoff as an undefeated Pac-12 champion. What about the one-loss Ducks? They need Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship to avoid messy outcomes. If the Crimson Tide wins, the selection committee might be forced to choose between 12-1 Oregon and 12-1 Georgia for the final playoff berth. The Ducks would have a conference title on their resume, but Georgia is Georgia.

New Year's Six/Fiesta Bowl

Our pick: Washington

Opponent: at-large team

Comment: We believe Oregon will win the conference championship and grab a CFP berth, but the Huskies won't fall far enough in the committee rankings to lose a spot in the New Year's Six. (In fact, the committee typically takes measures to protect the losers of conference championships.) The Cotton and Peach Bowls would be options, as well. But the Fiesta makes the most sense, with Alabama or Penn State as possible opponents.

Alamo Bowl

Our pick: Arizona

Opponent: Big 12

Comment: The Wildcats could have joined their basketball team in Las Vegas on Dec. 23 but went ahead and played their way out of a trip to Sin City. (The nerve!) Assuming both Oregon and UW participate in the New Year's Six games, Arizona is locked into the Alamo based on Pac-12 selection policy: A two-game edge in the conference standings over the pack of teams with 5-4 records protects the Wildcats from plunging down the lineup.

Las Vegas Bowl

Our pick: Utah

Opponent: Big Ten

Comment: Las Vegas Bowl executives have options. Per selection rules, they could take any of the five teams jammed in the middle of the standings with 5-4 or 4-5 conference records. In reality, the Utes stand as the best pick for selling tickets, filling hotel rooms, generating TV ratings and providing a competitive product against whichever opponent the Big Ten offers up.

Holiday Bowl

Our pick: USC

Opponent: ACC

Comment: This looked like a fabulous spot for Oregon State, which has never participated in the Holiday. But bowl executives could worry about coach Jonathan Smith's departure sucking enthusiasm out of the OSU fan base. It's not like USC supporters are thrilled about the postseason situation after the November collapse. But enough will make the drive from Orange County to justify the selection, and the Trojans make a quality TV draw.

Sun Bowl

Our pick: Oregon State

Opponent: ACC

Comment: The Beavers were in the hunt for the conference title a few weeks ago. Now, they could be headed to El Paso for the first time since 2008. (Remember that 3-0 victory over Pittsburgh? Didn't think so.) The other issue, of course, is OSU's depth chart. The Beavers could lose half the roster to the transfer portal next week.

LA Bowl

Our pick: UCLA

Opponent: Mountain West

Comment: The Bruins are programa non grata for at least two bowl games after their last-second withdrawal from the Holiday two years ago and their participation in the Sun last year. They could land in the LA or Independence bowls. Head-to-head results — the Bruins lost to Cal last weekend — are taken into account by bowl executives but are not necessarily the determining factor.

Independence Bowl

Our pick: Cal

Opponent: Big 12

Comment: Don't rule out the LA Bowl for the Bears based on their head-to-head win over UCLA and late-season momentum. But if Shreveport is, in fact, the landing spot, Cal would benefit from the recruiting exposure in the Southeast as the program transitions into the ACC.

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