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PROVO — BYU bounced back from its blowout loss to TCU by notching another Big 12 win, defeating Texas Tech 27-14 in Provo.
BYU took their opening drive in for a touchdown, and then recovered a fumble in the end zone for another quick score. Despite being out-gained by 120 yards, BYU forced five turnovers — plus two fourth-down stops — to win the turnover margin 7-0.
The offense found some much-needed balance, too, and posted a season-high 150 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry, while quarterback Kedon Slovis was still efficient with two passing touchdowns and no picks.
The win flipped the momentum on BYU's season. The TCU loss was BYU's worst "Game Grade" per my formula since 2017, and the second-half schedule was packed with teams with winning records. Now, they notched their fifth win which moves them within striking range of the bowl-clinching sixth win. It will be a challenge to do so this week, as one of the Big 12's two playoff contenders is next up.
BYU travels to blue blood and legacy Big 12 powerhouse Texas Saturday (1:30 p.m. MDT, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Texas 62.9 (11 th )
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Texas 68.9 (11th)
2023 season: BYU 43.5 (46th of 69 Power Five) | Texas 78.7 (8th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
BYU climbed up five spots after its win over Texas Tech to No. 46 in 2023 Game Grader. This is right on par with their ranking in 2022 (50th) and my preseason magazine projection this year (48th).
Texas entered its farewell Big 12 season as the heavy favorites to win league. They went into Tuscaloosa and dealt Alabama a rare nonconference loss, and surged up the rankings, but then lost a coin flip game to Oklahoma in Dallas. In total, they check in at No. 8 in 2023 Game Grader and are still a Big 12 and playoff contender.
Texas with the ball
Texas offense: 14th of 69 Power Five (overall), 14th passing, 28th rushing
BYU defense: 43rd of 69 Power Five (overall), 36th passing, 56th rushing
Texas had a top-20 offense last season and entered 2023 with almost the entire roster back. They lost a pair of NFL running backs, but also benefitted from another round of elite transfers, a second-year starter bonus for quarterback Quinn Ewers, and a more veteran offensive line. This September, it all clicked.
But last week against Houston, Ewers was knocked out of the game and now reports state he suffered an AC joint sprain, with the extent ranging from "week to week" to "he'll miss some time." He has been ruled out for Saturday, and it appears Maalik Murphy will start the game over third-stringer and super- recruit Arch Manning.
Murphy took over the offense after Ewers' injury last week and led the winning touchdown drive.
Keep an eye on their tight ends and wide receivers — a position group that is packed with elite talent — and whether Murphy is able to effectively distribute the ball to them.
BYU's defense has made some statistical gains the past few weeks. At one point, this was the lowest-rated rushing defense in Power Five, but they have rose out of the bottom 10. Eddie Heckard continues to make critical plays, and last Saturday he recovered the fumble touchdown and added an interception — two of the five turnovers the ball-hawking Cougars defense stole from Texas Tech.
It is a lot to ask, but to contend with Texas, they will need to win the turnover margin again, and decisively, because on a per-game and per-play basis, Texas has all the statistical advantages.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 67th of 69 Power Five (overall), 60th passing, 67th rushing
Texas defense: 13th of 69 Power Five (overall), 4th passing, 12th rushing
BYU's rushing offense finally started to click, and they posted 150 yards rushing for the first time all season. There is still plenty of room to improve as they rank in the bottom 10 of all of my opponent-adjusted, per-play metrics, and are third-worst in the overall offense number.
One encouraging sign is their offensive line pass protection, which currently ranks No. 13 in Power Five. BYU is allowing a sack on just 4% of pass plays, and while some offenses benefit from a dual-threat running quarterback to evade sacks, BYU's Slovis is more of a pocket passer, which means that 4% mark is even more impressive.
The line will need to play its best game yet, and the offense needs to control the ball and limit turnovers, because this is the best defense they have faced so far this season. Texas ranks No. 13 in my overall defense rankings, and BYU hasn't faced a unit in the top 25 yet. I expect Texas to limit the BYU rushing attack and make them one-dimensional — a dimension where they are ranked in the top five nationally (No. 4 pass defense).
Game prediction
There is too much firepower and roster talent on both sides of the ball here. Even without their starting quarterback, Texas has the advantage at every other position group and will play refocused football after their near upset loss to Houston.
BYU will get their sixth win eventually, but it won't be this Saturday.
Texas 38 | BYU 17
