SALT LAKE CITY — Exactly two weeks to Election Day and suspense is building, with polls too close to call in the Presidential race, and drama over whether any Utah Democrats can survive the surge of a Romney tide.

Local polls will add some clarity to the Utah situation as they trickle out this week and next. Based on what's been trending up to this point, here are some cautious predictions:

• Pres. Obama is reelected by a scant margin of two or three percent in the popular vote, but by a distinct margin in the Electoral College.

Instant Analysis:

Subdued standoff in final presidential debate

Pres. Obama and Mitt Romney participated in the final debate, which turned into a subdued fight about the state of the economy in the U.S.

While the Romney ticket has lately narrowed the margin - especially among likely voters - current polling suggests the momentum might be slowing, especially in swing states. Overall, the debates helped Romney establish himself as a credible alternative to the incumbent, particularly in the area of managing the economy. The GOP ticket has been particularly good at exposing the lack of a clear Pres. Obama agenda for a second term.

The Democrats have scored points exploiting the lack of specificity and consistency in the Romney economic plan, which could create the kind of lingering doubts that can hurt a challenger more than an incumbent who is a better-known commodity.

Also, the Republicans may have overstepped strategically on the issue of the attack in Benghazi. A current series of ads asking, "What did the President know and when did he know it?" imply there's a Watergate-type cover-up afoot, which smacks of a bit of an over-reach.

The notion the administration deliberately sought to mask the involvement of terrorist groups and a lack of proper embassy security won't resonate unless people buy the inference that the White House somehow believed it could it actually suppress the reporting of facts from the scene -- many of which were nearly immediately disseminated by the intelligence community itself. The notion that "he's hiding something" won't likely get much traction beyond those who already see the President as a nefarious player.

• In Utah, Romney wins by such a landslide that it renders obsolete the previous definition of landslide -- let's say around 80 percent. In its wake, most Republicans are swept into office - but not all.

It must be hugely frustrating for Utah Democratic Party Chairman Jim Dabakis, in his first big election and having what he justifiably sees as a credible and attractive slate of candidates, to find his party facing a certain Romney onslaught and a massive coattail effect.

There may be a sliver of hope for the Dems, in that voting straight ticket is no longer de rigueur in all sectors of the GOP. People inclined to vote all one way will sometimes pick and choose a candidate or two from the opposing party so they can think of themselves as "independent." That's how the Mathesons, Corroons and Ortons find themselves in office.

Which Democrats have the best chance? Aside from some incumbents in local legislative, city and county races, Jim Matheson (Congress) and Ben McAdams (Salt Lake County Mayor) are most likely to make a race of it. Matheson, because of his history and because his opponent, an entirely engaging candidate, has relatively little experience. McAdams, because he seeks to inherit an office held by a Democrat who enjoyed a decent favorability rating, and because he has branded himself well as Democrat-light.

The Romney effect guarantees that Gov. Gary Herbert is reelected by 30 points or more. But what about Sen. Orrin Hatch? In theory, he should enjoy the same kind of tug from the Romney speedboat, but we saw during the primary season a lot of sentiment that perhaps it's retirement time. And his opponent, Scott Howell, is well-liked, well-respected and for the most part, has run a solid campaign. His one gaffe, and it's a big one, was to overtly bring Hatch's age into the discussion, and in a clumsy and fairly offensive way.

There's an unwritten rule in Utah politics: "Don't make it personal." A sizeable number of Republicans may be okay with the prospect of a Hatch-less Senate, but they are also people who have genuinely liked Hatch for a lot of years and didn't take kindly to the suggestion that he's way too old to make it through another term.

Count Orrin in again, by a big margin, but not as big as the governor's.

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