Correcting Jazz players' pre-draft comparisons


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SALT LAKE CITY — Every June, the NBA draft rolls around and inevitably, college athletes readying to make the enormous leap from the amateur ranks to the pros draw comparisons to current and former NBA players.

It's a natural human exercise. To predict the future, we look at the past, and there is value to be found in the prediction.

Sometimes these pre-draft comparisons are incredibly accurate, sometimes they are overly ambitious, and sometimes they are plain wrong.

Looking at NBAdraft.net, one of the leading NBA draft websites, often their player comparisons are tremendous, occasionally they miss the mark.

In the case of LeBron James, NBAdraft.net compared the high school phenom to Hall-of-Famer Magic Johnson. While the Magic Johnson comparison isn't a 100 percent match, James' ability to play five positions on the floor, with superb passing vision and an unselfish attitude, the pre-draft comparison isn't without merit.

Not every comparison is that accurate.

In the case of another high school-to-pro prospect, NBAdraft.net compared former Jazzman Deshawn Stevenson to Michael Jordan. While Stevenson had a better than average NBA career, the only similarity between the two players is that Michael Jordan wore jersey number 23, the same spot where the Jazz drafted Stevenson in the first round.

With the assistance of hindsight, I look back at the Jazz's six leading rotation players' pre-draft player comparisons and attempt to find more accurate NBA counterparts to match this young roster's potential.

Gordon Hayward

Pre-draft comparison: Luke Jackson and Mike Dunleavy Jr. (NBAdraft.net)

Often, a major flaw in pre-draft comparisons is the inability to look at two players of a different race and find the common ground. Hayward, before the draft, drew comparisons from NBAdraft.net to Luke Jackson and Mike Dunleavy Jr. Jackson's career lasted just four seasons before being derailed by injuries, while Dunleavy Jr. was never able to score the ball at the rate Hayward does.

A more accurate modern comparison for Hayward is Michael Finley. Finley was a two-time All-Star as a primary option for the Dallas Mavericks, but found his ideal role supporting Dirk Nowitzki on dominant Mavericks teams throughout the 2000s. Finley retired with career averages of 15.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists. Hayward's current career average is 14.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists. The two have nearly identical effective field goal percentages with Hayward's career average at .493, and Finley's at .492.

Derrick Favors

Pre-draft comparison: Antonio McDyess (NBAdraft.net) Al Horford (DraftExpress.com)

Occasionally, the pre-draft comparisons are quite accurate, and that appears to be the case with DraftExpress.com's Al Horford comparison. While no comparison is perfect, Horford and Favors included, there are distinct similarities between the two players' games. Horford has never been a statistical juggernaut, having never eclipsed the 20-point-per-game threshold and only averaging more than 10 rebounds per game just once in his career. The casual fan could overlook Horford as one of the NBA's premier big men over the last decade. That would be a mistake. Horford is a dominant defender and a better than adequate offensive player with a great midrange jump shot.

Favors isn't the passer that Horford has been throughout his career, and is only now beginning to show a jump shot capable of stretching opposing defenses, but their defensive acumen is similar. Horford is a three-time All-Star, and had two appearances by the time he was 24, Favors' age today, but I wouldn't rule out a similar number of All-Star appearances in Favors' future. Favors' burgeoning jump shot is the key to living up to the lofty career Horford has made for himself.

Rodney Hood

Pre-draft comparison: Rashard Lewis (NBAdraft.net)

I like the Rashard Lewis NBA comparison for Hood, mainly in style of play offensively. Their abilities to handle the ball and find good shots from nearly anywhere on the floor make them similar players. However, Hood likely will never rebound the ball as well as Lewis, and is a better passer today than Lewis was at any point in his career.

Strangely enough, Hood's best statistical NBA comparison might be teammate Gordon Hayward. At 22 years of age, Hayward averaged 14.1 points per game, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. Hood, at 23 years old, is averaging 14.2 points per game, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Hayward had an effective field goal percentage of .501, while Hood averages .504. Their style of game isn't identical, as Hayward is more athletic, and Hood is more methodical, but their statistical impact on games at a similar age is remarkable. If Hood continues a growth pattern similar to that of Hayward, the Jazz will have the best shooting guard/small forward combo in the NBA.

Rudy Gobert

Pre-draft comparison: Shawn Bradley (NBAdraft.net)

Finding an accurate player comparison for Gobert is difficult, and it's not difficult to draw a comparison between Gobert's length and that of former BYU standout Shawn Bradley. The truth is, Bradley was never as good of a player as Gobert is today.

I'm not comfortable comparing Gobert in just his third season to one of the NBA's best defensive players of all time, and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, but the best comparison for Gobert might be Dikembe Mutombo. If you were to throw out Mutombo's rookie season, an anomaly scoring-wise when he averaged 16.6 points per game, the Georgetown great's numbers look eerily familiar to Gobert's. If you total the average for the final 16 seasons of Mutombo's career, he averaged 9.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. Gobert, in just his third NBA season, is averaging 9.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks.

If you were to eliminate the final seasons of Mutombo's career where he played a supporting role, he averaged 12 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks. While those numbers may be harder to achieve in the modern NBA, a similar double-double average, while perennially contending for the NBA's blocked shot title don't seem out of reach for the young Jazz center.

Alec Burks

Pre-draft comparison: Eddie Jones and Evan Turner (NBAdraft.net)

While Alec Burks' body type matches that of Eddie Jones, the comparisons in their game end there. Burks has never developed into the passer most expected coming out of Colorado where he was asked to do it all, and projected to be more of a play-making ball-handler than he has shown the NBA.

While Burks traditionally takes high percentage shots near the rim, his field goal percentage has never been tremendous, rather finding points with trips to the foul line and a better than advertised 3-point shot.

In his fifth NBA season, Alec Burks' career resembles former NBA journeyman Derek Anderson. Over the first six seasons of Anderson's career, he averaged 13.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He shot 41 percent from the floor and 34 percent from the 3-point line. Over the last three seasons, as Burks has begun to receive regular rotational minutes, he averages 14 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Over the stretch, Burks finishes 43 percent of his baskets inside the 3-point line and 36 percent from deep. Both made more than four trips to the foul line per game, and had a knack for athletic finishes over and around defenders.

Trey Burke

Pre-draft comparison: Kemba Walker and Kyle Lowry (NBAdraft.net)

Trey Burke drew comparisons to Kemba Walker largely due to bias and for having made a deep run into the NCAA final four as an undersized point guard who made big shots.

Unfortunately, it appears that Kemba Walker has had the better start to his pro career of the two, and there is little chance Burke reaches the heights of Kyle Lowry, who was recently selected to his second All-Star game.

Perhaps Burke's best NBA comparison is Ramon Sessions. Sessions has played for eight teams throughout his career, largely appearing as a backup point guard. Between the ages of 22 and 27, Sessions averaged 11.9 points, 4.6 assists and 2.9 rebounds with a mediocre .454 effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile Burke, through three seasons between the ages of 21 and 23, is averaging 12.7 points, 4.4 assists and 2.6 rebounds. His effective field goal percentage sits just below Sessions' average at .449.

While Sessions has never found a solid NBA home, he's in his eighth NBA season and should find a role in the league for several more seasons. With recent development in his game, Burke appears capable of finding a similarly successful NBA career.

Looking at these NBA comparisons, both before the draft and now, with more accurate data, it's clear to see that no two players are exactly alike. If the Jazz young core is able to reach the potential of their counterparts, Jazz fans should be rewarded with several All-Star appearances, but more importantly postseason success.


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About the Author: Ben Anderson ------------------------------

Ben Anderson is the co-host of Gunther in the Afternoon with Kyle Gunther on 1320 KFAN from 3-7, Monday through Friday. Read Ben's Utah Jazz blog at 1320kfan.com, and follow him on Twitter @BenKFAN.

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