Will you be alive in 10 years? Fitness test could predict future

Will you be alive in 10 years? Fitness test could predict future

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SALT LAKE CITY — A new formula based on a treadmill fitness test can calculate a person’s risk of dying in 10 years, according to a new study from cardiologists at Johns Hopkins.

The new algorithm, described in the March issue of the journal Mayo Clinic Proceedings, uses age, gender and fitness level to predict 10-year survival.

“The notion that being in good physical shape portends lower death risk is by no means new, but we wanted to quantify that risk precisely by age, gender and fitness level, and do so with an elegantly simple equation that requires no additional fancy testing beyond the standard stress test,” lead investigator Dr. Haitham Ahmed said in a press release.

Researchers analyzed stress tests from more than 58,000 patients to come up with the formula, named the FIT Treadmill Score. They hope the test will be added as a test for patients who undergo cardiac stress testing.

"The FIT Treadmill Score is easy to calculate and costs nothing beyond the cost of the treadmill test itself,” said Dr. Michael Blaha, senior study author, in the press release. "We hope the score will become a mainstay in cardiologists and primary clinicians’ offices as a meaningful way to illustrate risk among those who undergo cardiac stress testing and propel people with poor results to become more physically active."


The FIT Treadmill Score is easy to calculate and costs nothing beyond the cost of the treadmill test itself. We hope the score will become a mainstay in cardiologists and primary clinicians’ offices as a meaningful way to illustrate risk among those who undergo cardiac stress testing and propel people with poor results to become more physically active.

–Dr. Michael Blaha


Dr. Jennifer Ashton told ABC News she agrees the test should be used as a motivator instead of something that is scary or depressing.

"In medicine we usually base predictions of survival on the absence or presence of a disease state,” she told ABC News. “What’s new here is that there is now a fancy equation doctors can use to compare the chances of survival for one 50-year-old woman against another 50-year-old woman.”

Dr. Gordon Blackburn at the Cleveland Clinic noted that the patients analyzed for the formula would already be high-risk if they were receiving a stress test, today.com reported, but added he was impressed with the test.

“The bottom line is fitness or exercise capacity is a strong predictor of mortality,” Blackburn told today.com.

The study also published a chart showing death risk by age, gender and fitness level that researchers hope will be put in doctor's offices for patients to review.

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“For example, a 45-year-old woman with a fitness score in the bottom fifth percentile is estimated to have a 38 percent risk of dying over the next decade, compared with 2 percent for a 45-year-old woman with a top fitness score,” the Johns Hopkins press release stated.

“We hope that illustrating risk that way could become a catalyst for patients to increase exercise and improve cardiovascular fitness,” Blaha said.

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Tracie Snowder

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