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SALT LAKE CITY — Close to slightly below-normal temperatures have helped Utah's above-average snowpack melt "in a reasonable manner," and the current weather outlook is showing promising signs as the state's high-level snowpack begins to melt, federal forecasters say.
Most of the state's low- and mid-elevation snowpack has already melted without too many problems, said Hayden Mahan, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, in a video update to the state's water situation that the agency posted on Monday.
"We just have that high-elevation snowpack that is starting to become primed for melting off and should do so here over the next few weeks. There's still a lot of water in the high elevations — upward of 2-plus feet of water for some locations, specifically (in) the northern mountains," he said.
What has helped so far
Utah's statewide snowpack — the amount of water in the mountain snow — reached 18.8 inches of snow water equivalent on April 2. About one-third of that has melted over the past three weeks, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.
Mahan explained that the state has avoided issues, so far, largely because of the temperatures since meteorological spring began in March.
While Utah posted its sixth-warmest winter on record, spring has been closer to normal. Utah's average temperature was 0.6 degrees below the 30-year normal in March, while meteorological winter was 3.2 degrees above the seasonal normal, per the National Centers for Environmental Information.
That hasn't changed much in April. For example, Alta's average temperature this month is on pace to be just 0.5 degrees above normal after the first three weeks of the month. Mahan shared a map that shows many locations in the state have been close to or slightly below the 30-year normal through mid-April.
This, in turn, has helped melt the state's snowpack in a "reasonable manner." It's very similar to last year, which ultimately helped the state avoid severe flooding concerns as its record-breaking snowpack melted.
"We're not warming things up rapidly to where we're melting off heaps of snow and bringing down a lot of water," he said. "We're doing it at a steady pace, which is what we'd like to see."
What's expected for the rest of spring
Last year's snowpack drastically changed reservoir levels in the state, which is why Utah's reservoir system is already within one percentage point from last year's peak of 86% capacity. There's still plenty of snow left to melt even if the current snowpack level is now half of what it was this time last year, which will help many reservoirs refill again this year.
The 12.4 inches left in the average snowpack by Tuesday morning is 1.4 inches above the 30-year normal for April 23. It's also about 4.6 inches above the total in 2022 and 5 inches above the level in 2021. The current level is also higher than the peak snowpack level in both 2021 and 2022.
That said, the outlooks remain favorable as the high-elevation snowpack melts.
KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson said a few small storms coming from the Gulf of Alaska are forecast to arrive by the second half of this week. The storms are forecast to bring in some precipitation and also drop high temperatures from high-70s and low-80s along the Wasatch Front Tuesday and Wednesday, back down into the 50s and 60s by the end of the workweek. That will help calm down the active snowmelt.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center lists almost all of Utah as having "equal chances" when it comes to temperature and precipitation next month. That means there's no clear signal if conditions will be above, below or close to normal in May. That could also mean there's a mix of hot and dry weather met with cooler and wetter weather, much like has been the case since spring began.
It's not until June and July that the probability of above-normal heat ramps up, but most of the snowpack could be melted by then.
As such, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center projects about a zero percent to less than 10% chance that Utah's major rivers and streams will reach flood stage this year, which is a good sign. But Mahan said there will still be some safety risks until the snowpack is all melted.
"They will still be running high, fast and cold, so you're going to want to be careful if you're out recreating by any of these tributaries," he said.
Public safety experts say people should pay close attention to children or pets when near any stream, creek or river, especially during the snowmelt process.
