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LAS VEGAS — Utah State is the only team in Utah with a chance to claim an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
If the Aggies want to avoid sweating out Selection Sunday, it can do so by winning the Mountain West Tournament this weekend to secure an auto bid.
Beginning on Thursday night in Sin City in the quarterfinals round (9:30 p.m. MST, CBSSN), the third-seeded Aggies (13-5) will face a sixth-seeded New Mexico (8-10) team that won on Wednesday night.
Confidence is always high as Utah State enters the tournament, where they've gone 11-3 in the past five seasons, including back-to-back tournament championships in 2019 and 2020. And with the team entering the tournament on a five-game winning streak and playing its best basketball of the season, the Aggies appear to have the pieces to win it.
Behind junior guard Steven Ashworth, who received All-Mountain West first team honors earlier this week, Utah State operates the most efficient offense in the conference and is fourth in defensive efficiency. To win three games in three days, though, requires getting through one of the more loaded tournament fields in recent years.
"We know it's going to be a challenge," Utah State head coach Ryan Odom said. "And our guys have had a good week of practice, and they are certainly excited — excited to play."
Nationally-ranked San Diego State, who is a NCAA Tournament lock and a No. 1 seed in the MW Tournament, remains the prominent team this weekend. Boise State, who Utah State beat on senior night last week to grab its first Quad 1 win, has likely punched its ticket to the dance and is slated with the No. 2 seed.
Fellow bubble school Nevada is a No. 4 seed in the tournament and capable of winning it all, as are San Jose State, New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State, three of which are ranked inside the top 100 of the NET. New Mexico may be the biggest wild card of them all.
Led by first team all-conference guard Jaelen House, the Lobos were a clear NCAA Tournament team through the first three months of the season, where it opened the season undefeated in nonconference play and boasted road wins over Saint Mary's and San Diego State.
The season went off the rails in February, though, as New Mexico lost seven of nine games, including losses to bottom feeders Wyoming and Air Force. The Aggies also beat the Lobos 84-73 in Logan on Feb. 1, a game where the Aggies shot 46% from the field and led wire-to-wire. The two sides never faced each other in The Pit.
Despite the recent results, the Aggies are not taking the Lobos lightly.
"A lot of times you get in a tournament, the teams that aren't hot, get hot; and teams that are hot, stay hot," Odom said. "I think (New Mexico) has a good balance of inside and outside. Even though they don't shoot a ton of 3s, they have the capability to make quite a few if you allow them to.
"They're excellent in transition — you start with House and (Jamal) Mashburn Jr. — two of the best guards in our league. (Mashburn) has the ability to score off balance, (House) is just dynamite in transition and a defensive nightmare for his opponents."
Outlasting Wyoming 87-78 in the first round on Wednesday afternoon, the Lobos, on paper, have the talent to compete with anyone in the league this weekend. Inside a Thomas & Mack Center that draws a large contingency of Lobos fans every March, they'll be extra motivated to do so, too.
If Utah State wins on Thursday, it will likely secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament, though the program won't know officially until Sunday. But beating New Mexico, which is currently 50th in the NET, would give the Aggies either its second Quad 1 win or ninth Quad 2 win of the season. The Aggies will improve to 24-7 overall and 10-5 in the first two quadrants and 13-2 in the last two.
Losing makes things dicey, though, as an eight-loss mid major with just one Quad 1 win and two Quad 2 losses will be susceptible of being leaped by Power Five teams who strengthen their resumes in their respective conference tournaments.
For Utah State, it's better to take care of business.
"The key for us is just settling into the game," Odom said. "Getting ready for it and doing our best."
