SALT LAKE CITY — The U.S. Forest Service projections for wildfires in Utah is lower compared to this time last year, but that doesn’t mean a wildfire won’t spark up at any time soon.

In its latest projection on Thursday, the Forest Service's Wildland Fire Assessment System map indicated a majority of Utah had low or moderate fire danger. Some portions of southwestern Utah and a pocket southwest of the Great Salt Lake showed a high fire danger, according to the map. On June 20, 2018, the majority of northern Utah showed a moderate risk, while southern Utah displayed a high to very high threat for forest fires.

It’s not really surprising that the threat is lower heading into this fire season, considering Utah experienced above-average precipitation totals during the winter and spring months. For example, entering Monday total precipitation recorded at the National Weather Service station in Salt Lake City is about 43% above the average since Oct. 1, 2018, (the start of the water year); and its station in Cedar City reported a 35% increase from the yearly average.

While the wildfire threat is lower now than this time in 2018, KSL meteorologist Grant Weyman pointed out some areas in southern Utah have already experienced red flag warnings. Those are issued when heat, wind and low humidity make for ideal conditions for fires to start.

That could soon be the case for central and northern Utah, too.

After an abnormally cool first day of summer on Saturday, forecasts in Salt Lake City currently call for temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s, wind speeds around 15 mph, and humidity lower than 25% for the remainder of June heading into July. That can dry out Utah’s greenery quickly.

“In the short term, we’re kind of turning a corner right now,” Weyman said. “We’re not only going to be warming up and staying dry, but we’re going to be in this condition for the rest of the week.”

On top of that, possible human-caused fire sources increase in July because it is legal to launch fireworks from July 2 through July 5 for Independence Day, and again from July 22 through July 25 for Pioneer Day. That’s in addition to other common human or natural causes, such as lightning, vehicle equipment, burning debris, campfires and even power lines.

A total of 1,314 wildfires blackened nearly 760 square miles throughout Utah in 2018 and led to roughly $110 million in state and federal government firefighting costs by the end of the fire year. State officials said a little more than half of the fires were human-caused. This year, they are urging caution as things begin to heat up across the state.

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“We live in a desert, so things are going to get dry and things are going to become flammable,” Jason Curry, spokesman for the Utah Division of Fire, Forestry and State Lands, told KSL.com earlier this month. “It’s kind of that two-edged sword: We love the green and we love the moisture, but at the same time it’s going to mean (fire) fuel eventually.”

Weyman agrees. He said the green grass has remained from the wet spring and that’s a sign of how much growth there was from the above-average precipitation, but it could change within a few weeks.

“I think initially those hills that are green now — with the wind and (the heat), it’s going to dry them up pretty quickly,” he said. “I think we’re going to notice a big difference with all of that drying up pretty quickly. You’re going to have to wonder if we’re going to see red flag warnings with those conditions all connected. In other words, this is the week we start ramping it up and getting to that fire season.”

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